Spring 1912
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From - Wed Feb 20 21:54:38 2002
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
What do you think of the following:
a Sev S Ukr-Mos
a Ukr-Mos
a Bud S Rum-Gal
a Rum-Gal
This means that either Ukr-Mos or Rum-Gal succeeds. Mos should be yours in
fall in both cases.
I could also dislodge you from Rumania then you could retreat forward to
Ukr if Rum-Gal bounces.
Adam talks about French solo in this year !?! If both Germany and Russia
helps France it is possible if we play carelessly.
Let me know if you are willing to move
Ukr-Mos (I'll support this from Sev)
Rum-Gal
Bud S Rum-Gal
Raine
From - Wed Feb 20 21:54:42 2002
Message from tim at 9oakhill.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
It looks like I should convoy to LVN, but will Russia allow that? It would
seem that UKR-MOS (SEV S) in both the spring and fall would keep Moscow out
of your hands. Unless, Russia orders WAR-UKR to bounce an A/I unit from
advancing while they take Moscow. Then our (FRG) units in STP, LVN and WAR
would be able to capture Moscow in the fall. Right? I think it might
become important to not have a Russian unit there so that support from
Warsaw won't be self-dislodgement.
Tim
From - Wed Feb 20 21:54:43 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Tim,
> It looks like I should convoy to LVN,
That's what I was thinking.
> but will Russia allow that?
Russia claims he's in favor of a French win, but I guess it remains to be seen.
There's probably no harm in giving him the benefit of the doubt in the Spring.
> It would seem that UKR-MOS (SEV S) in both the spring and fall would keep Moscow out
> of your hands.
You're right. I had overlooked that move when I studied the board earlier. Unfortunately,
I don't have time to analyze the situation further right now. Maybe we can arrange for me
to get War instead, or perhaps I'll have to wait til next year for 18. If it looks like
that's the case, I'll be sure to keep you alive so you can savor the victory with me.
> Unless, Russia orders WAR-UKR to bounce an A/I unit from
> advancing while they take Moscow. Then our (FRG) units in STP, LVN and WAR
> would be able to capture Moscow in the fall. Right?
That's a good idea! However, a unit in Gal could cut the support of War. I need to
think about it some more.
Rod
From - Wed Feb 20 21:54:45 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> > I think I could then secure the win in
> > the Fall if you and Germany are both willing to make it happen.
>
> I'm willing, at least as long as Sev and Rum stay under hostile
> control. I can't see Raine changing his mind about that, he's
> so stubborn.
Thanks for clarifying your position for me. I realize that you could turn against me
and try to draw if that becomes feasible, but I appreciate knowing where you consider
that point to be.
> I can never remember if
> A War S French A Stp - Mos would count towards dislodging Mos
> or not
It would not. Support from War would count only toward standing-off some other attack.
I had thought that War-Ukr, Lvn S StP-Mos would be sufficient, but now I realize that
Sev S Ukr-Mos would thwart it. I need to do some more analysis and see if there's a
better plan. If you would enjoy planning a French win more than just taking orders,
feel free to offer suggestions. I'm still quite optimistic of my prospects, but maybe
we'll need another year to wrap it up if AI outguess us.
Rod
From - Wed Feb 20 21:54:46 2002
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> What do you think of the following:
> a Sev S Ukr-Mos
> a Ukr-Mos
> a Bud S Rum-Gal
> a Rum-Gal
Okay, I've so ordered.
> I could also dislodge you from Rumania then you could retreat forward to
> Ukr if Rum-Gal bounces.
As you wish.
> Adam talks about French solo in this year !?! If both Germany and Russia
> helps France it is possible if we play carelessly.
I think it would be tough for them to do, but there is a danger. I'll
work on Germany.
You should probably move to Vienna and then Bohemia. As always, it would
be nice if you could leave me with a few supply centers in the Fall.
Austria
From - Wed Feb 20 21:55:00 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Tim,
If Russia plays along, I think we can arrange for me to have at least a 50% chance of
winning this year:
Bar S Nwy-StP
Bal C Kie-Lvn
Mos-Ukr
War-Pru
Mun S Sil-Boh
Ber-Sil
Mos disbands if dislodged.
I believe the worst-case scenario is AI units in Gal/Ukr/Mos with War empty. Our best
attack on War is Sil/Pru S Lvn-War, Boh-Gal, StP-Mos. This can be thwarted with Gal-Sil,
Ukr S Mos-War, in which case Mos is vulnerable to a supported attack. It's a 50/50
guess whether I should attack War or Mos.
What do you think of this?
Rod
From - Wed Feb 20 21:55:01 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
I think we can arrange for me to have at least a 50% chance of winning this year:
Bar S Nwy-StP
Bal C Kie-Lvn
Mos-Ukr
War-Pru
Mun S Sil-Boh
Ber-Sil
Mos disbands if dislodged.
I believe the worst-case scenario is AI units in Gal/Ukr/Mos with War empty. Our best
attack on War is Sil/Pru S Lvn-War, Boh-Gal, StP-Mos. This can be thwarted with Gal-Sil,
Ukr S Mos-War, in which case Mos is vulnerable to a supported attack. It's a 50/50
guess whether I should attack War or Mos.
What do you think of this?
Rod
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:40 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
I now believe that we can force a win, though it will take two years to
accomplish. Of course, it requires that we all have a French win as our
goal. I suppose that wasn't your first choice, but I hope you'll find
it more satisfying than the likely alternatives.
My proposal is as follows:
War S Mos
Mun S Sil-Boh
Ber-Sil
Nwy-StP
Kie-Bal-Lvn
Hol-Kie
Fall:
StP S Mos
Lvn S War
Mun/Sil S Boh
Swe-Bal-Pru
Kie-Ber
Russia removes Mun and War.
Next Spring:
Mos-Ukr
Boh-Gal
Sil/Pru S Lvn-War
StP-Lvn
France secures Mun
I think the worst case is that AI pop Mos and Boh in S1913M. I should
be able to hold Mun through the Fall, and Sil/Pru/Lvn are sufficient
protection for War. And I think I can prevent Italy from snagging any
of my centers in the south.
Comments are welcome.
Rod
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:41 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Italy in
'gutsy':
Raine,
Things are going well. It does look like I'll get to 17 first, since
Russia wants to make me a solo threat so he can turn us against each
other.
I might as well be honest - if I thought I could get to Mos before you
I'd probably go for it. But it's clear that you and Austria can protect
it (or at least create a beleaguered garrison), so I guess I'll have to
"settle" for a two-way. :-)
I think a big question is how long Austria will continue to cooperate.
I doubt that he really intends to help us get a two-way. However, you
should be able to take most of his centers this year regardless, so
maybe it doesn't matter.
Let me know if there's anything you'd like to discuss.
Rod
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:50 2002
Message from tim at 9oakhill.com as Germany to France and Russia in 'gutsy':
I'm game. You're right, I'm not thrilled, but the prospect of getting
squeezed out of a draw is even less appealing.
Tim
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:51 2002
Message from tim at 9oakhill.com as Germany to Austria in 'gutsy':
I believe I will be allowed to convoy SWE-LVN this spring. WAR and MOS
will be mutually supporting this spring, so you should be able to move into
GAL and leave us with at least a guess in the fall to capture either WAR or
MOS.
If we guess wrong, Russia may still be able to throw the game to France, so
i think you should be doing what you can to convince Italy that he must
move west. He might not be able to take any centers from France, but he
can force him to mass units around Iberia which will take away from his
ability to force his way in the northeast.
Tim
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:53 2002
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Germany in 'gutsy':
> I believe I will be allowed to convoy SWE-LVN this spring. WAR and MOS
> will be mutually supporting this spring, so you should be able to move into
> GAL and leave us with at least a guess in the fall to capture either WAR or
> MOS.
Yes, this looks good.
> If we guess wrong, Russia may still be able to throw the game to France, so
> i think you should be doing what you can to convince Italy that he must
> move west. He might not be able to take any centers from France, but he
> can force him to mass units around Iberia which will take away from his
> ability to force his way in the northeast.
Italy sees the danger. I will mention it to him, but I would think he
would move west. Why wouldn't he? Even if there were a two-way plan, he
would want to fortify the boarder.
Austria
From - Thu Feb 21 19:27:55 2002
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
You are going to move some units against France, aren't you? The Russian
situation may get very dangerous, so any distraction that France will
have to deal with may help.
Austria
From - Fri Feb 22 16:26:25 2002
Broadcast message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France in
'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
I will be out of town this weekend.
Rod
From - Fri Feb 22 16:27:04 2002
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France and Germany in 'gutsy':
> I now believe that we can force a win, though it will take two years to
> accomplish. Of course, it requires that we all have a French win as our
> goal. I suppose that wasn't your first choice, but I hope you'll find
> it more satisfying than the likely alternatives.
Your plan looks reasonable to me, as reasonable as
a plan can be once I've given up on surviving into
a draw anyway. I'll send in the orders you suggested
unless I hear otherwise.
Adam.........
From - Fri Feb 22 16:27:06 2002
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
Frances plan should secure him a solo at F1913, it's
currently S1912. As I have said before, I intent to
go along with Frances plan for a solo until such a
time as you have taken Austrian supply centers and
Rum and Sev have returned to Russian control. I will
find it difficult to stop him even if this were to
happen immediately. If you continue to attack me
the game WILL end in a French solo.
Just so you know, you're throwing away your place
in a draw whereas I'm throwing away elimination.
Adam........
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:12 2002
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
Our open discussion policy is working well, indeed.
> Things are going well. It does look like I'll get to 17 first, since
> Russia wants to make me a solo threat so he can turn us against each
> other.
That raises the question if you should hold on and wait untill I am on 16
or something. I mean, otherwise we might be in troubles to find our way
from 3way to 2way.
> I might as well be honest - if I thought I could get to Mos before you
> I'd probably go for it. But it's clear that you and Austria can protect
> it (or at least create a beleaguered garrison), so I guess I'll have to
> "settle" for a two-way. :-)
If you take StP with a fleet like you promised then how is it possible for
you to take Mos? Is Germany convoying you to Lvn or what?
> I think a big question is how long Austria will continue to cooperate.
> I doubt that he really intends to help us get a two-way. However, you
> should be able to take most of his centers this year regardless, so
> maybe it doesn't matter.
What makes you think that Austria wouldn't cooperate?
I was silent for the whole weekend so I have to catch up with the others
too (but you 1st :-).
Raine
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:14 2002
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
Have you talked with Germany about his intentions? If so what is your
interpretation of what is coming?
> > What do you think of the following:
> > a Sev S Ukr-Mos
> > a Ukr-Mos
> > a Bud S Rum-Gal
> > a Rum-Gal
>
> Okay, I've so ordered.
I have my orders in too with Sev S Ukr-Mos.
> > I could also dislodge you from Rumania then you could retreat forward to
> > Ukr if Rum-Gal bounces.
>
> As you wish.
You sound like a) 'I don't care' or b) 'do it and I can get angry.' I
cannot say which.
> I think it would be tough for them to do, but there is a danger. I'll
> work on Germany.
Any news on this?
> You should probably move to Vienna and then Bohemia. As always, it would
> be nice if you could leave me with a few supply centers in the Fall.
You will have centers in the Fall that is sure. I'd like to support Mun
hold but I don't know if there's a point in there. Also Tyr-Boh is for
nothing if Russia supports himself there. Any suggestions?
Raine
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:15 2002
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
> You are going to move some units against France, aren't you? The Russian
> situation may get very dangerous, so any distraction that France will
> have to deal with may help.
On what do you base your opinion of Russia situation? I know there are
possibilities but I have been silent over the weekend and got no info
either so could you tell me what makes you think that Russian situation if
dangerous?
What comes to my possible moves against France, if I was to move against
France it should be a surprise, right? So, I wouldn't tell it to anyone.
Do you think I could gain something real by moving against France? Or do
you think France is moving to Mao?
Raine
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:17 2002
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
You are still the 3rd player in the draw. I cannot see your point of
throwing away the 3way to French solo.
I am NOT attacking you. I did NOT attack you in last moves.
You asked for Rumania and Sevastopol. Rumania is not mine. You cannot
reach it unless Austria is on your side. Sevastopol is under my control,
do you want to move Mos-Sev ?!?
I think you should concentrate on taking a place on stalemate line and
forget about French solo. It is up to you if you want to give solo to
France. I don't understand your motivation if you do.
I am attacking Austria this season. What else should I do to make you
happy? Attack both France and Austria and give Sevastopol to you? C'mon...
I am willing to support Mun hold if you want to take the support.
I'd like to hear some constructive suggestions from you. How to move in
order to prevent the French solo.
Raine
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:22 2002
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> Have you talked with Germany about his intentions? If so what is your
> interpretation of what is coming?
Yes. From what I can tell, Germany will work with France until the very
last moment. That is, when it looks like he can help France win the game,
he will make another move instead. At least, this is what he tells me.
We won't know for sure until the end, I suppose.I think Germany will
convoy to Livonia. However, if France did not trust Germany, Russia could
block the move.
> I have my orders in too with Sev S Ukr-Mos.
Okay, great.
> > > I could also dislodge you from Rumania then you could retreat forward to
> > > Ukr if Rum-Gal bounces.
> >
> > As you wish.
>
> You sound like a) 'I don't care' or b) 'do it and I can get angry.' I
> cannot say which.
The move is fine with me.
> You will have centers in the Fall that is sure. I'd like to support Mun
> hold but I don't know if there's a point in there. Also Tyr-Boh is for
> nothing if Russia supports himself there. Any suggestions?
No suggestions. I doubt that Russia will hold in Munich, though. Feel
free to move through my centers.
Austria
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:24 2002
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> On what do you base your opinion of Russia situation? I know there are
> possibilities but I have been silent over the weekend and got no info
> either so could you tell me what makes you think that Russian situation if
> dangerous?
Because there is a chance that France can take Moscow this year. He will
surely try Stp-Mos in the Fall with Russian support.
> What comes to my possible moves against France, if I was to move against
> France it should be a surprise, right? So, I wouldn't tell it to anyone.
> Do you think I could gain something real by moving against France? Or do
> you think France is moving to Mao?
I have no idea what France is doing. He seems to have some extra units.
I doubt he would let you get a jump on him.
Austria
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:25 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Italy in
'gutsy':
Raine,
> That raises the question if you should hold on and wait untill I am on 16
> or something.
I plan to take StP while it's easy, but there's no hurry with Mun and Ber. Also,
Germany wants me to keep him alive until the end, and I suppose there's no harm in
humouring him, so I'll probably save one of his centers for last.
> If you take StP with a fleet like you promised then how is it possible for
> you to take Mos? Is Germany convoying you to Lvn or what?
No. What I meant is that *if* I thought I could take Mos for the win, I could try
moving an army to StP and asking Germany to move Swe-Bal-Lvn. But since I wouldn't
get Mos anyway, I intend to honor our agreement and take StP with the fleet. I would
much rather get a two-way than a three-way, but I also want to be open about whether I
might try for a solo. I don't want you to worry unnecessarily. :-)
> What makes you think that Austria wouldn't cooperate?
I don't know whether he'll cooperate. I haven't had much contact with him and I never
really trusted him, which is why I questioned his intentions. I suppose you understand
his motivation much better than I do, so if you're happy with the A/I relationship then
it's not my concern. I guess the only issue is when his centers will become more valuable
than his assistance, but I'm sure you'll figure that out. ;-)
Rod
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:26 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany
and Russia in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
Thanks for your assistance! I appreciate your willingness to pursue an alternate goal,
even if it is merely the lesser evil.
I have entered my orders per my latest proposal.
Rod
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:27 2002
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Tim,
Just to confirm, I'd like you to order Bal C Kie-Lvn, Swe H this turn. If Adam cooperates,
we just have two years of grunt work and then we're done.
I will advance my forces in the north, but I will not take any of your centers this year.
You should end the game with two units (but technically zero centers), if it's any
consolation. :-)
Rod
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:28 2002
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> You are still the 3rd player in the draw. I cannot see your point of
> throwing away the 3way to French solo.
>
> I am NOT attacking you. I did NOT attack you in last moves.
If you had no intention to try and eliminate me then there
was no good reason for taking SEV or helping Austria to take
Rumania. If you want to convince me that you have no intetion
of trying to eliminate me then you'll try and eliminate
Austria as quickly as possible. It looks like you could
eliminate him by the end of this year to me. You'll also
make some effort to get Sev and Rumania back in Russian
hands.
I promised that I'd throw the game to France if you took Sev.
There's no point in making threats like that if you don't
intend to follow through with them. If you can find a way
to get Sev and Rumania back into Russian hands then I'll
consider reversing my position and trying for the draw
again. Until then I'll continue to make the orders France
asks me to make and hope I can get him a solo as quickly
as possible. It's what I made clear I'd try to do if you
attacked Sev.
Adam.......
From - Mon Feb 25 18:51:30 2002
Message from tim at 9oakhill.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
>Just to confirm, I'd like you to order Bal C Kie-Lvn, Swe H this turn. If
>Adam cooperates, we just have two years of grunt work and then we're done.
Yep. My orders have been in for a long time.
Tim
From - Tue Feb 26 22:46:13 2002
:: Judge: NZMB Game: Gutsy Variant: Standard
:: Deadline: S1912M Tue Feb 26 2002 20:00:00 +1300
Movement results for Spring of 1912. (gutsy.048)
Austria: Army Ukraine -> Moscow. (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Rumania -> Galicia.
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Galicia.
France: Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.
France: Army Norway -> St Petersburg.
France: Fleet Barents Sea SUPPORT Army Norway -> St Petersburg.
France: Army Holland -> Kiel. (*bounce*)
France: Fleet North Sea -> Helgoland Bight.
France: Fleet English Channel -> North Sea.
France: Army Kiel -> Baltic Sea -> Livonia. (*no convoy*)
France: Fleet Norwegian Sea -> Norway.
France: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Holland -> Kiel.
France: Fleet Gascony -> Spain (north coast).
France: Fleet Brest -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army Paris -> Burgundy.
Germany: Army Sweden -> Baltic Sea -> Livonia.
Germany: Fleet Baltic Sea CONVOY Army Sweden -> Livonia.
Italy: Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Italy: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Italy: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Sevastopol.
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Rome -> Tuscany.
Italy: Army Tyrolia SUPPORT Russian Army Munich.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tunis.
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Ionian Sea.
Italy: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Austrian Army Ukraine -> Moscow.
Italy: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Serbia.
Italy: Army Venice -> Piedmont.
Russia: Army Moscow HOLD.
Russia: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Silesia -> Bohemia.
Russia: Army Berlin -> Silesia.
Russia: Army Silesia -> Bohemia.
Russia: Army Warsaw SUPPORT Army Moscow.
The next phase of 'gutsy' will be Movement for Fall of 1912.
The deadline for orders will be Fri Mar 01 2002 20:00:00 +1300.
