Spring 1906
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From - Sat Nov 17 07:43:19 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
I'm back from my vacation. Any news?
Austria
From - Sat Nov 17 07:43:20 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi, I'm back from my conference. Are we still attacking each other?
Austria
From - Sat Nov 17 07:43:21 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Welcome back Keith.
I tried to talk to Germany and got no answer :-( I was travelling for
couple of days too and I got no chance to diplome. So Germany is the only
one I tried to talk to and all (FGR) have been silent.
I will come to US in the end of next week so there will be another
deadline extension then. There is a Division of Planetary Sciences meeting
in New Orleans.
Raine
From - Sat Nov 17 07:43:23 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
> Take your time. Do what you need to do and don't worry any sort of game
> delay; I'm sure Roger would put the game on pause for as long as you need.
Well, there's not exactly much I can do for my brother anyway.
I live a couple of hundred miles away so other than going to
see him when I have a couple of days off, when I tend to
ignore diplomacy anyway, no delays really needed.
> If you feel comfortable doing so, let us know how your brother's doing.
Seems he's a little better each day, but it's going to be a slow
process. He can recognise people now and form sentences. Wow,
when that's an improvement your starting from somewhere bad I
guess. The cops reckon that someone's told them who did it so
maybe we'll see an arrest at some point.
Anyway, on with the game. It looks slightly more likely to
me that we'd be able to get one of Austria's centers for
me than for Germany so I guess doing that and having Germany
take Norway is the best idea. If we can take two centers
then so much the better.
Sev looks like the easiest one. War - Ukr; Mos S Bla - Sev
will get Sev for us in the spring even. If Gal were able
to support that move to Ukr then we'd destroy one of
Austria's armies in Russia too, though I think there's
a good chance the support would be cut from Vie, it's
far from certain.
Actually, if I also order Bud - Rum then we destroy BOTH
of the Austrian armies in Russia this spring, but we
risk Bud being destroyed too if we do that. This may not
be too bad, less units tends to mean more simple and
the complexity of the situation is making it hard to
plan even a move in advance at the moment.
Meanwhile, I'd say Mun S Sil - Boh would probably work,
assuming Austria is more interested in getting back
Bud than protecting Boh.
Does that seem reasonable to both of you? I'm going up
to Birmingham to see my brother after work today but
I'll be back Sunday evening so there's still plenty of
time.
Adam.............
From - Sat Nov 17 07:43:25 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> Hi, I'm back from my conference.
Hope you had fun. I also went away to Germany last weekend which
was great but returning to find that my brother had been hospitalized
on Friday night/Saturday morning at some point kinda took the
wind out of my sails. He was beaten up and unconcious, and remained
so for a few days. He's just starting to regain conciousness
over the last day or two so I'm having to spend a fair amount
of time up in Birmingham visiting family and stuff. Might be
slow to reply for a while.
> Are we still attacking each other?
Well, in the short term I think I'm fighting to get Sev back
at the very least. Rum as well in an ideal world. Once those
two issues are solved though it will start looking pretty late,
there will be distinct Germany Solo worries. Do you think
asking for Sev and Rum back is unreasonable?
Adam............
From - Sun Nov 18 14:14:31 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
It has been very silent. Have the others tried to contact you?
You probably noticed Eric's message in vermont groups mailing list. I
don't think it was his JDPR that lead to his elimination. From my point of
view it was a good situation for me to be a part of RAI against
T. Eric's proposal was EIT. As Italy I have difficulties in allying with
Turkey and when there were RAI possibility it was clear that T will be
gone. If I remember correctly it was Adam who mentioned that Eric has the
highest JDPR and he needs to be the first target but I don't know how much
Adam thought about the JDPR when RAI was forming. Anyway, interesting
discussion about no-nanonymity vs. anonymity.
About gutsy:
We should coordinate our moves well. I'd like to dislodge Black Sea.
You could prevent the retreat to Rum and he would probably retreat to
Bul(ec) and then we could destroy that fleet in fall.
Something like:
Con-Bla
Ank S Con-Bla
Smy-Con
Tun h
Tys h
Nap S Tys
Iin S Tun
Tus S Ven-Pie
Ven-Pie (or do you need my help from Venice?)
I guess you have been talking a lot to get either Germany or Russia on
your side, right? Before the break Russia was talking about enjoying the
French solo...
Raine
From - Sun Nov 18 14:14:36 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
It looks like Germany played a clever moves before the break. He has the
opportunity to take Nwy and War from you. I would guess that Keith is
trying to get either you or Steve on his side. No need to proof this but I
guess Keith hasn't talked much to you. That leaves Steve... Those three
german fleets has two alternatives to attack you or France. I cannot see
FG alliance falling apart, yet. I do believe that Steve is playing for the
solo and nothing less.
I'd guess that Keith will take Bud back and give Vie to Steve (if Steve
wants it). What I don't know is (if AG co-operate against you) how will
Keith tolarate the fact that Steve will get most of your centers. Well, I
might be wrong. I just wanted to open the discussions with you after the
long break. Do you have any ideas of the future? Or possibilities for us
to co-operate?
Raine
From - Sun Nov 18 17:35:15 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
I have only gotten a few messages since I've gotten back. Your suggested
moves sound fine with me. I also think it is important to dislodge the
Black Sea. I need to sit down and look at the map before I decide
exactly what I will do.
Austria
From - Sun Nov 18 17:35:17 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
I want to give Sev back to you. I know I'm not going to be able to hold
it anyway. I want to see you in a position where you can defend yourself
against Germany. I don't want your centers, but we keep finding
ourselves in positions where we seem to have no options but to attack
each other. I'd like to change that.
Germany is eventually going to cause your destruction, although you
probably think of me as the bigger immediate threat. However, if you
look at your centers and who is in danger of taking them, it is Germany
and not me. I actually should not be seen as a major threat to you. I
wish we could disentangle our forces.
If I don't put up a fight with Sev, are you willing to let me keep Rum?
I need some centers because my units centers are all under siege right now.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:29 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
Keith,
Adam tells me that you and he are talking about future FAR cooperation
against Germany. I think a campaign against Germany will eventually be
necessary, but you and Adam need to work out your differences first. I
can't move against G until someone is able to hit him from the east as
well.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:32 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> Keith says I should talk to you about the three of us
> attacking Germany. I've told him that I'm happy to do
> the talking part but until I have Rum and Sev back in
> Russian hands and the Austrian units are out of Russia
> talk is all I'm prepared to do.
I think you made the right response. I'd be open to attacking Germany -
preferably before he attacks me - but I'm in no position to take him on
by myself. I would require help, which implies peace between A/R, but I
think you're right to not trust him until he puts his money where his
mouth is.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:33 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany
and Russia in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
> The Italian build will most likely be F Naples which frees up the Ionian
> fleet
They need all four fleets to guarantee the safety of both Tys and Tun,
but the Italian build definitely makes things a lot easier for them.
> and really puts the pressure on Adam and me to deliver a solid attack
> on Austria. Yea, Rod's Med line is threatened, but any sort of FGR depends
> on GR success this year. Right?
I'm not worried about any threats to my line - I'm just painfully aware
that I'm not going to make any progress until someone breaks. Still,
FGR is my best option, and that means I'm rooting for you guys to break
their backs to open up opportunities for me as well.
> Sev looks like the easiest one. War - Ukr; Mos S Bla - Sev
> will get Sev for us in the spring even.
Ukr-Mos defeats it.
> If Gal were able
> to support that move to Ukr then we'd destroy one of
> Austria's armies in Russia too
Another option is War S Gal-Ukr. Or Mos S War-Ukr, Bla-Sev for the
Spring. But what if Ukr-Mos, Sev-Mos? My impression is that Keith
likes to employ tactics that mitigate the worst-case scenario, and
eliminating any support from Mos might be his plan.
> Actually, if I also order Bud - Rum then we destroy BOTH
> of the Austrian armies in Russia this spring
Hmmm. What if Vie S Ukr-Gal? Maybe Bud-Vie is prudent.
> but we risk Bud being destroyed too if we do that.
I don't think we need to worry too much about Bud. If Bud or Bla is
dislodged, it will probably have an interesting retreat available. :-)
> Meanwhile, I'd say Mun S Sil - Boh would probably work,
> assuming Austria is more interested in getting back
> Bud than protecting Boh.
Or maybe even Sil-Boh, Mun-Tyl, in case Keith does Tyl-Tri to cover Tri.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:36 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
> Adam tells me that you and he are talking about future FAR cooperation
> against Germany. I think a campaign against Germany will eventually be
> necessary, but you and Adam need to work out your differences first. I
> can't move against G until someone is able to hit him from the east as
> well.
I have been trying to cooperate with Russia for years, but it never seems
to work out. I think Russia is under someone's spell.
It is only a matter of time before Germany stabs Russia. Already he has
maneuvered himself to that he will be able to get the Russian centers. I
am not sure I will be able to resist Germany, especially if Italy turns
against me, which is a real possibility.
It does not look like you will make any more progress against Italy.
What will you do now?
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:38 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
Hi, I looked at the map and your moves, and everything seems fine to me.
The only think I want to talk about is Venice. If you move Ven-Pie and I
move Tyr-Tri, Germany is going to move Mun-Tyr for sure. Neither of us
wants him in Tyrolia, I assume.
So, I think you should move either Ven-Tyr or Ven-Tri. What do you
think? Ven-Tri would ensure the bounce so you would still be in a
position to support Tuscany in the Fall. Something has to break between
France and Germany soon, so we shouldn't have to worry too long.
Let me know your thoughts.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 17:49:39 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
How soon are you willing to make a move against Germany? It sounds like
there will be French support if we move first. France can make no more
progress against Italy, and he knows it. Surely he has contacted you.
The first step towards protecting us both is to get rid of Germany's army
in Galicia. We can easily destroy it if you wanted to. If this army is
gone he can't hurt you for a while. And destroying his armies means it
will be fairly easy to threaten the German home centers themselves (e.g.
Munich).
What is in it for you in helping Germany? You're not going to get my
centers--Germany is positioned to do that. If we work together you will
get Sev and a chance at Rum. You might be able to convince me to
relenquish Rum if our units are stationed such that you cannot easily
threaten me. Otherwise I would prefer to keep Rum for reasons I
mentioned in the previous message.
If we don't work together, you will still probably take Sev, but not Rum,
and Germany will likely get Vienna or another of my centers. What will
he do with his builds? There is no need for him to move against France
yet. France is occupied with Italy and cannot withdraw until we make a
move against Germany. Germany will go after France only when he has
stabbed you so that he can build three armies to march towards France.
Even if we cannot come to an agreement about who gets which centers, it
is still in our best interests to work together against Germany. Germany
is holding a knife to your throat, and he can obliterate you at his
will. He's just waiting until I am weak enough that I can't threaten him.
It is in my interest to work with you because Germany is such a big
threat. I cannot take Warsaw or Moscow--only Germany is in a position to
do that. And I know that when Germany stabs you, it will be difficult
for me to defend myself against him should he move in my direction.
Let me know your thoughts.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:05 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
Thanks for you note. I almost feel like playing no-press (you are the
exception). To be honest I don't like the situation. I have no choice than
to trust you 'cause the others are silent.
> The only think I want to talk about is Venice. If you move Ven-Pie and I
> move Tyr-Tri, Germany is going to move Mun-Tyr for sure. Neither of us
> wants him in Tyrolia, I assume.
You are right Germany in Tyrolia would be nasty. I guess it doesn't matter
if I move either to Tyr or Tri if you move Tyr-Tri.
> So, I think you should move either Ven-Tyr or Ven-Tri. What do you
> think? Ven-Tri would ensure the bounce so you would still be in a
> position to support Tuscany in the Fall. Something has to break between
> France and Germany soon, so we shouldn't have to worry too long.
I truly hope so. Could you tell me if you have had any success in talking
Germany on your side against Russia?
Raine
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:07 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
The only difference between Ven-Tyr and Ven-Tri would be if Germany did
*not* move Mun-Tyr. If your move Ven-Tyr actually succeeded, then this
would be bad--you wouldn't be able to support Tuscany in the Fall.
> I truly hope so. Could you tell me if you have had any success in talking
> Germany on your side against Russia?
I have not heard anything from Germany, and I have not sent him anything
in quite some time. Germany can conquer Russia whenever he wants to, and
he has no need for my help. His goal is surely to help Russia cause as
much damage as he can against me.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:08 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
Ok, I'll move to Trieste.
> I have not heard anything from Germany, and I have not sent him anything
> in quite some time. Germany can conquer Russia whenever he wants to, and
> he has no need for my help. His goal is surely to help Russia cause as
> much damage as he can against me.
I tried to explain to Adam that he should be aware of Germany but I have
no reply from him.
How about Serbia, do you think you could support me to Bul(ec) ? I guess
you have other things in mind. I ask this 'cause I have the chance to
dislodge Bla either in Spring or Fall. I move to Bul(ec) _only_ if you ask
me to and if you promise the support. Otherwise I'll dislodge Bla like I
said previously.
Any news from France? Do you think he sees that against solid AI he cannot
make gains? He is surely trying to get you against me, I guess.
Raine
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:16 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> How soon are you willing to make a move against Germany? It sounds like
> there will be French support if we move first. France can make no more
> progress against Italy, and he knows it. Surely he has contacted you.
We have talked, I think that he might move against Germany if we
made the first move, you're right there. Though I don't think
he could really afford to back off away from the line in the
Med in order to make that move until Raine and you broke off
the fight there too. He could just about convoy some armies
into the continent, but he'd be exposing his English centers
if he did so.
I don't think we'd get any help from him in Germany until he
either made progress in Italy, using the new builds agaisnt
the German, or managed a peaceful withdrawal from that fight
which would be difficult.
> What is in it for you in helping Germany? You're not going to get my
> centers--Germany is positioned to do that.
Well, I already have one of them! True the rest of your home
centers at least would go to Germany, but how long could
the Balkans and Turkey hold out against me if you were weakened
that way by Germany? I'd get my own centers back too
presumably, though lose Norway. Although I have no doubt a
stab from him would happen eventually, I think there's a good
chance he'd worry about France first. Much better to have the
little guy on your side in the final rush with three or so players
left.
But again, having said that I do think that Germany is
a problem that I'll have to address, and the sooner I can
do so the better for me.
> If we work together you will get Sev and a chance at Rum.
I'll get sev back anyway, baring some unlikely events. Rum
would probably end up mine again if I continue to fight
with Steve too, though perhaps not for a short while.
> You might be able to convince me to
> relenquish Rum if our units are stationed such that you cannot easily
> threaten me. Otherwise I would prefer to keep Rum for reasons I
> mentioned in the previous message.
I understand that Rum is contentious. My fleet in Bla can be
used to take it I guess, if we can agree that it should be
mine.
> If we don't work together, you will still probably take Sev, but not Rum,
> and Germany will likely get Vienna or another of my centers. What will
> he do with his builds?
He'll get Norway as well for sure. While he might get Vie I think
he's just thinking of making sure he can advance slowly, he'd
be happy with one build for now - no point outstripping France
too quickly and getting him worried.
What will he do with the builds? A Mun and A Ber I imagine.
That still looks more threatening to you than me, short
term at least.
> There is no need for him to move against France
> yet. France is occupied with Italy and cannot withdraw until we make a
> move against Germany. Germany will go after France only when he has
> stabbed you so that he can build three armies to march towards France.
If he wants to march against France, he'd have at least two of
those builds this season, but that's not the impression I have
been getting. Frankly, he's irrationally terrified of you,
has been all game. I think he'll be happy to grow slowly and
see you shrink more quickly for the immediate future.
After that, he'll have to consider whether France is
likely to stab him with my help as much as if he can
stab me, once you fall your support of italy falls and
France will be making gains too.
> Even if we cannot come to an agreement about who gets which centers, it
> is still in our best interests to work together against Germany. Germany
> is holding a knife to your throat, and he can obliterate you at his
> will. He's just waiting until I am weak enough that I can't threaten him.
Now This is the truth. The questions are (A)could I get enough of
your centers to build some defence against Germany before he
stabbed me, (B) would France be more likely to help me out or
ignore the situation and (C)will I be able to get those
centers to defend myself if I change sides (again).
Answers are harder, but
(A) Possibly, though surely not certainly.
(B) It depends on how much I can help him in Turkey/Italy I suspect
(C) Centers aren't so important if I switch early, but they
are important. I'd need Sev, and I'd need to take Rum
if I were to lose Bud (which I would do of course). There's
simply no other way I could defend the centers you have
rightly pointed out are at risk from Germany.
> It is in my interest to work with you because Germany is such a big
> threat. I cannot take Warsaw or Moscow--only Germany is in a position to
> do that. And I know that when Germany stabs you, it will be difficult
> for me to defend myself against him should he move in my direction.
It's in your interests because you're losing against the
two of us combined right now, probably will continue to
do so unless either Germany or I stab the other, and
even then if it's Germany stabbing me you're in trouble
as you've said. I don't disagree that it's in both
our interests: which is always a good foundation.
> Let me know your thoughts.
We haven't got long until the deadline, but a good list
of objectives for the year might look like this:
* A Mos - Sev
* A Sev destroyed
* Ukr - Gal
* A Bud destroyed
* F Bla - Rum
If we could arange all these things, which don't apear
to be physically impossible, then it would probably
be worth my switching sides. If we could also get
A War - Pru then A build in War and one in StP
I'd be half way into the attack already. Do you
think we can even agree on that list of goals for
this year though? You may be able to take Bul to
compensate for Rum, if you can convince Raine
that you'll stop there and still support him
against France. I'd be more comfortable with one
less unit in Turkey as well anyway.
Adam..........
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:20 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> It looks like Germany played a clever moves before the break. He has the
> opportunity to take Nwy and War from you.
Nwy has already been agreed to go to Germany. I don't
think the one center stab for War would be worth it
for him.
> I would guess that Keith is
> trying to get either you or Steve on his side.
Both I'd imagine.
> No need to proof this but I
> guess Keith hasn't talked much to you.
Oddly, Keith has talked more than Steve, though this
is simply becasue Steve is busy and most of the plans
are already laid out I belive.
> That leaves Steve... Those three
> german fleets has two alternatives to attack you or France.
They'll take Norway then pretty much just hang around
I think for a little while anyway, until Steve stabs
either me or France.
> I cannot see FG alliance falling apart, yet.
Not yet, but stabbing me probably won't put Germany
over 18 centers. Stabbing France may do that, which
is always an important consideration. It won't happen
for a while anyway.
> I do believe that Steve is playing for the
> solo and nothing less.
I'd still be hoping for it if I were in either Steve's
position or Rod's.
> I'd guess that Keith will take Bud back and give Vie to Steve (if Steve
> wants it).
Sounds like an apauling guess to me. Give away one of his
home centers? He'd be much better to take the deal on the
table from me than that.
> What I don't know is (if AG co-operate against you) how will
> Keith tolarate the fact that Steve will get most of your centers.
I don't think Steve is about to turn around. He'll take
Norway and possibly Vie this year. That'll be enough
for him this year. The next year maybe Tri and Bud,
depending how things go.
> Well, I might be wrong. I just wanted to open the
> discussions with you after the long break. Do you have
> any ideas of the future? Or possibilities for us
> to co-operate?
I can't see me and Keith making a deal that doesn't
involve me taking Rum back. This will mean that
Keith loses a center. If he disbands Ion your
defence starts to look shaky against France.
If, on the other hand, he takes Bul and you
disband Ank then your defence against France can
continue indefinately and Austria doesn't lose
any ground, indeed he turns the tide of his
war with Germany.
I don't know if Keith and I can even reach such
a deal, but I'd sooner have F Ank disbanded than
F Ion if I were you, which is worth keeping in mind.
Adam..........
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:23 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> I think you made the right response. I'd be open to attacking Germany -
> preferably before he attacks me - but I'm in no position to take him on
> by myself. I would require help, which implies peace between A/R, but I
> think you're right to not trust him until he puts his money where his
> mouth is.
Personally, I think you'd require more help than the two of
us could give alone even, unless you have a plan on withdrawing
from the fight with Italy. And if you did withdraw there,
what would Italy do? Wait around for us to finish off Germany?
Unlikely, he'd either give chase to your retreating units
or he'd go back to attacking me, which would again at last
massively slow the fight against Germany.
I don't think you can really afford to turn around until
Italy is weakened enough for you to make progress, and
then use the new builds against Germany myself.
I think that you'd probably have to covince Austria to
remove his support of Italy before you could promise to
attack Germany.
Which leaves the question of exactly when I /can/ afford
to turn on Germany since there's no question he'd stab
me for builds to use against you once he thinks the
timing is right.
I don't think Austria is ready to give into my demands yet
and give me back Sev and Rum, so I suspect this is all
fairly academic at the moment.
Adam.........
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:24 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
Time to deadline: 10 hours 30 minutes
We should really have done more talking by now!
> I'm not worried about any threats to my line - I'm just painfully aware
> that I'm not going to make any progress until someone breaks. Still,
> FGR is my best option, and that means I'm rooting for you guys to break
> their backs to open up opportunities for me as well.
I think that F Ion will be the next Austrian disband, baring
any destroyed units. There is a worry if F Con can sail
to Ion before that matters, and it can, but that's
a good start.
> > Sev looks like the easiest one. War - Ukr; Mos S Bla - Sev
> > will get Sev for us in the spring even.
>
> Ukr-Mos defeats it.
Okay, do we think that Bla will be able to give any
support? It certainly CAN be cut by Ank or Con,
but I don't think we're going to find a guarenteed
attack to work.
> Another option is War S Gal-Ukr.
I think that Gal should probably just concentrate on
trying to take Austrian centers. It feels like a
retreat to move it into Russia, not to mention the
security risks :)
> Or Mos S War-Ukr, Bla-Sev for the Spring.
> But what if Ukr-Mos, Sev-Mos? My impression is that Keith
> likes to employ tactics that mitigate the worst-case scenario, and
> eliminating any support from Mos might be his plan.
Could be right, but do we think Bla will be left
unmolested to give it's support? We can't know, but
it seems likely to be cut to me, though not dislodged
(nobody wants a retreat into Bul or Rum).
I guess Gal AND Mos could support War - Ukr? Still
cutable but Vie does at least have other more important
things to do.
> Hmmm. What if Vie S Ukr-Gal? Maybe Bud-Vie is prudent.
Actually you're right, keeping Gal is more important than
destorying Ukr. He'll have to disband anyway if we can
get Sev and/or Rum and/or Vie.
> I don't think we need to worry too much about Bud. If Bud or Bla is
> dislodged, it will probably have an interesting retreat available. :-)
Very true, unless they decide to deliberately force it's
destruction.
> Or maybe even Sil-Boh, Mun-Tyl, in case Keith does Tyl-Tri to cover Tri.
There's a high chance of this just bouncing though and leaving
us with no progress at all. I think the supported attack
stands more chance of sucess, especially if Bud - Vie.
My Provisional Orders:
A Mos S A War - Ukr
A War - Ukr
F Bla - Sev
A Bud - Vie
F Nwy H
I'll be checking my email occasionally for the next four hours
or so but any changes after that won't reach me in time to
change my orders.
Adam...........
From - Mon Nov 19 17:50:29 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
> I think that F Ion will be the next Austrian disband
You're probably right - now we just need to make that happen! :-)
> Okay, do we think that Bla will be able to give any support?
Doubtful.
> but I don't think we're going to find a guarenteed
> attack to work.
You're right. We need to make some good guesses.
> > Another option is War S Gal-Ukr.
>
> I think that Gal should probably just concentrate on
> trying to take Austrian centers.
OK.
> I guess Gal AND Mos could support War - Ukr?
I think that's a good idea.
> > Or maybe even Sil-Boh, Mun-Tyl, in case Keith does Tyl-Tri to cover Tri.
>
> There's a high chance of this just bouncing though and leaving
> us with no progress at all. I think the supported attack
> stands more chance of sucess, especially if Bud - Vie.
Either way is fine with me.
> My Provisional Orders:
> A Mos S A War - Ukr
> A War - Ukr
> F Bla - Sev
> A Bud - Vie
Sounds good. Another option is Bla-Rum or Bla-Bul (and hope you get lucky), but if
Sev S Ukr-Mos then Bla-Sev is necessary.
I still have this nagging feeling that Keith will foresee an attack on Ukr or Sev with
support from Mos and order Ukr-Mos, Sev-Mos, in which case something "unusual" like Bud
S Bla-Rum might be in order - but I don't want to be wrong and see you lose Mos.
I think your current orders are the most prudent.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 19:04:30 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
Hi, only a brief message from France, with nothing of substance. He is
not trying to convince me to attack you. He must know that if I had any
inclination to attack you, I would have done so already.
I think the best move is to dislodge Russia from the Black Sea, and then
we can deal with his retreat to Bulgaria in the Fall. You might consider
Ank-Bla, Con S Ank-Bla and Smy-Arm. I might not be able to hold Sev, and
you might want to try to take it.
I am supporting Tunis with my F Ion, and I'm assuming you're moving
either Ven-Tri or Ven-Tyr.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 19:04:34 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi, I got your latest message. It seems like we have some foundation on
which we can start to work together. This turn I think that Italy will
probably attack your fleet in the Black Sea. If you are dislodged (I
don't know whether he will move to Bul or not), you should have an open
retreat, and you should be able to move to Rum in the Fall (if not
before). I would not mind your fleet in Rum for the long term.
I urge you to support yourself in Warsaw. I will not be attacking Moscow.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 19:04:35 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
It would suit me just fine if I were to have all of my units out of
Russia at the end of the season (unlikely, depending on what you are
doing) or year (more likely). This should give you some mroe security.
No matter what you do I don't think that Germany is going to allow you to
get any builds. He can take Warsaw and Norway as necessary, even if you
did manage to get both Sev and Rum this year.
If you want to help me against Germany you could have Warsaw support
Ukr-Gal. I am sure that you would like me to be out of Ukr, anyway. My
being in Gal would mean one less enemy unit bordering Mos and War,
whichever way you count your friends and enemies.
Austria
From - Mon Nov 19 20:38:32 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France and Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi,
I've read through your last couple of exchanges, and think my best move is
probably:
mun - tyr
sil - boh
gal - vie
Or, I could use Gal to support war - ukr or bla - rum.
Keith might do:
tyr - vie
vie - bud
ser s vie - bud
But, that means Bud can retreat to Tri and I'd be in Bohemia.
If your still Adam, let me know what Galicia should do. I'm partial to
diving on Vienna, but I'm for a supported attack. OR, maybe I dive on
Rum???
Thanks.
- Steve
From - Mon Nov 19 21:45:25 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany
and Russia in 'gutsy':
> gal - vie
>
> Or, I could use Gal to support war - ukr
Gal-Vie seems useful only if Vie S Ser-Bud - but I don't think Bud needs
the protection, because Keith can't block all the retreats without
giving up Ukr. I believe Gal S War-Ukr has more chance of accomplishing
something, especially if we anticipate Sev-Mos.
> or bla - rum.
I think Adam has entered Bla-Sev.
> OR, maybe I dive on Rum???
That might be interesting. It would be sweet if it works, but if it
doesn't then it's a waste. Also, it might be prudent to leave Rum open
as a possible retreat for Bla.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 21:51:41 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
I would like to see A Bel move to Hol. Do you have any concerns about
that?
FYI, I have ordered Mar-Pie, Par H.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 22:05:24 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> I have been trying to cooperate with Russia for years, but it never seems
> to work out. I think Russia is under someone's spell.
Perhaps he's under Germany's spell - just like Italy has been under your
spell. ;-)
> I am not sure I will be able to resist Germany, especially if Italy turns
> against me, which is a real possibility.
Adam just mentioned to me that he doesn't think FAR against G is
feasible while Italy is viable, because Italy would just attack one of
us. So I'm afraid that the sort of cooperation that we need is still a
long way off.
> It does not look like you will make any more progress against Italy.
> What will you do now?
I don't really have any good options. Italy is invulnerable, and I
would be the loser in a war with Germany as things stand now. So I
guess I'll just have to sit tight and see if either G or I becomes an
attractive target.
Or, you and I could cooperate against Italy and improve both our
positions.
Rod
From - Mon Nov 19 22:19:31 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
> I would like to see A Bel move to Hol. Do you have
> any concerns about that?
No concerns here. As long as we chat enough to make sure we're keeping the
border peaceful, I'm happy.
> FYI, I have ordered Mar-Pie, Par H.
Thanks. That makes me pretty comfortable.
- Steve
From - Tue Nov 20 18:09:33 2001
:: Judge: NZMB Game: Gutsy Variant: Standard
:: Deadline: S1906M Tue Nov 20 2001 20:00:00 +1300
Movement results for Spring of 1906. (gutsy.022)
Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Vienna -> Budapest.
Austria: Army Sevastopol -> Rumania. (*bounce*)
Austria: Fleet Ionian Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Tunis.
Austria: Army Tyrolia -> Trieste. (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Ukraine -> Galicia. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Vienna -> Budapest.
France: Army Marseilles -> Piedmont.
France: Army Edinburgh HOLD.
France: Fleet North Africa -> Tunis. (*bounce*)
France: Army London HOLD.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean SUPPORT Fleet Western Mediterranean.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet North Africa -> Tunis.
France: Army Paris HOLD.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon SUPPORT Army Marseilles -> Piedmont.
Germany: Army Belgium -> Holland.
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia. (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet Sweden HOLD.
Germany: Army Galicia -> Rumania. (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet Skagerrak HOLD.
Germany: Fleet Denmark HOLD.
Germany: Army Silesia -> Bohemia.
Italy: Army Smyrna -> Constantinople.
Italy: Army Venice -> Trieste. (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ankara SUPPORT Fleet Constantinople -> Black Sea.
Italy: Fleet Constantinople -> Black Sea.
Italy: Fleet Tunis SUPPORT Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea. (*cut*)
Italy: Army Tuscany HOLD.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea SUPPORT Fleet Tunis.
Italy: Fleet Naples SUPPORT Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea.
Russia: Army Budapest -> Vienna. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: Fleet Black Sea -> Sevastopol. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: Fleet Norway HOLD.
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Warsaw -> Ukraine.
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Ukraine.
The following units were dislodged:
The Austrian Army in Ukraine with no valid retreats was destroyed.
The Russian Army in Budapest with no valid retreats was destroyed.
The Russian Fleet in the Black Sea can retreat to Armenia or Bulgaria (east
coast).
The next phase of 'gutsy' will be Retreats for Spring of 1906.
The deadline for orders will be Wed Nov 21 2001 19:13:04 +1300.
From - Tue Nov 20 18:09:35 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
If you disband the southern fleet I think I could concentrate on Austria.
There would be no friction between us 'cause there would be no units
neighbouring :-)
Raine
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:02 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
That turn worked pretty much as I had expected. What do you think?
You will be able to take Sev but not Rum (or at least not both of them),
which is what I predicted. I am happy with this. I hope you are. I
should be able to get a build. I think your fleet will be destroyed. If
Germany does not stab you, you should be able to get two builds.
But, my instincts tell me that Germany is going to stab you this turn.
His moves are going to be something like this: Mun-Tyr, Boh S Mun-Tyr,
Gal-War, Ska-Nwy, Swe S Ska-Nwy, Den-Nth. He may be telling you that he
will take Norway. The stab is that he will take Warsaw as well.
Why would Germany do this? There are a number of reasons. One, he does
not want you to get any builds. If you build two armies, it would be
almost impossible for him to attack you further. (And if he does take
Norway, a good move on your part would be to disband the fleet and
rebuild armies--even if he took Stp with a fleet, it would be no great
threat to you.)
Second, he has Austria under control. He will have armies in Tyrolia,
Bohemia, and he will be able to build more. There is no way that I can
break through that line for quite some time. He has a good defense set
up, and his offense can go through you (Russia) to attack me from that
flank fairly easily.
In short, you have served your purpose to Germany.
I understand that you trust Germany much more than you trust me right
now, but look at who is in the position to hurt you most. And what can
Germany give you that he has not given you already? The Austrian centers
and Rumania will be impenetrable against any assult from the German and
Russian units. If you take Rum with your Bul fleet this turn, you won't
also be able to take Sev, and this will hold true for the future as well
(you can have one of Sev or Rum but not both).
I can freely give you my moves this turn, because there nothing you can do
about them. I will move Sev-Rum, Ser S Sev-Rum, Tyr-Vie, Bud S Tyr-Vie.
Italy will likely dislodge your fleet (I assume you are retreating to
Bul). I suggest you make the following moves: Mos-Sev, Ukr-War. If you
wanted to save your fleet you could move Bul-Rum with support from Gal
and Ukr, if you trust Germany enough, but you then would not be able to
take Sev.
Let me know what you think.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:03 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
Actually, it looks like I will be able to hold off Germany and Russia
indefinitely now. I am predicting that Germany will take Norway (I think
he has already told Russia this) and also Warsaw (Gal-War would be the
stab). I don't see any reason not to. Germany's progress has stalled,
and he has no one to attack but you or Russia.
I see that Germany will be able to get into Tyrolia with your help this
turn, which means you will be able to get into Tuscany soon. If Italy
plays it right, he can still hold you off for a while (he could, for
instance, build another fleet or shuffle his units around). To break
through, you need to get a fleet into Tuscany. Are you really going to
do that? Once you get a fleet into Tuscany, Germany will stab you.
Germany's already going to have a fleet in the North Sea, and he will
move to Eng soon.
Now, if you moved to Eng instead, Germany would have a difficult time
attacking you. If you, Russia and I work together against Germany, he
will be in a tight spot. You and Russia will do most of the work since
your centers are the ones threatened by Germany.
If you move Mid-Eng, Pie-Mar and Par-Bur, and Russia retreats Nwy-Nwg,
Germany will not have an easy time. I will help by putting pressure on
Munich, so Germany would have a limited number of options.
I can't attack Italy right now because all my units are spoken for in
defending against Germany and Russia. I can defend against them with
what I have, but I don't have any extra units. However, if you withdraw
from Italy, Italy becomes a threat to me. I am sure Italy would attack
me. What else would he do? You can still easily defend against him with
all of your fleets.
Let me know your thoughts.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:05 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
That turn went pretty much as expected. This coming turn will be
interesting. I think Germany will stab Russia. I can hold off Germany
and Russia forever now if I get a build. Russia can take either Rumania
or Sevastopol but not both. I am assuming that you will dislodge Russia
from Bulgaria.
Germany is going to force his way into Tyrolia this turn (good thing we
bounced him out, or you would have lost Venice this turn). But, all is
not lost. France will be able to force his way into Tuscany, but that
doesn't buy him anything immediately. In order to dislodge your F Tys, he
needs fleets in Naf, Wes, Lyo and Tus. It will take him several moves to
shuffle his fleets around, and you can make moves to disrupt them. While
he is doing this you will also have the opportunity to shiffle your own
units, perhaps buildling another fleet and putting an army in Apulia (I am
assuming that you will eventually take Sevastopol from Russia).
But, I think it won't come down to that. Germany's progress is halted,
and he has to attack Russia or France. If he stabs Russia, and if Russia
doesn't move to protect himself (like I think he won't), Russia will be
pretty much out of the picture. Then, Germany will turn on France to try
for the win, I think. By the time it would take France to dislodge Tys
then take Tunis, I think Germany will have attacked France, so you should
be safe.
What do you think?
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:10 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Germany in 'gutsy':
Hi, it looks to me like any Russian/German progress against Austria is now
finished. What's your plan now? I think you will stab Russia soon.
France can still shuffle his units towards Italy and eventually dislodge
Tys. Are you going to wait until then to stab France? That's what I
would do. You won't be able to get enough centers to win then, would you?
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:12 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France and Russia in 'gutsy':
Keith and Raine are working well together, but I think Keith is calling the
shots. The AI orders were superb; even knowing what they were, I don't
think we could have done much better. My position would have been better
off if I had ordered gal - vie, but then Adam would have lost Bud with
little chance of taking Sev.
The problem now is that a stable-ish line might form this winter. Assuming
Adam retreats to Bul, a likely set of eastern orders will be:
Keith:
sev - rum
ser s sev - rum
tyr - vie
bud s tyr - vie
Adam:
mos - sev
ukr s mos - sev
bul - bla
Raine:
bla - bul
con s bla - bul
ank - bla
Steve:
mun - tyr
gal - vie
boh s gal - vie
Do either one of you see a good way to get Keith back to five centers or of
breaking the line next year?
Write when you can. Thanks.
- Steve
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:14 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
So...let's pretend for a second that we're still looking at an FG two-way.
What should we be trying to do?
I'm inclined to keep Norway around for a while because I can't use the build
unless I'm going after Adam or you and I don't really want to do either.
But, I'm not sure what we should do next.
Are you interested in taking the Tyrolia and shifting MAO into the med?
I'll order mun s pie - tyr if you'd like; just let me know.
Raine will probably hold Tuscany so you could take Tyrolia and the Piedmont
without risking Wes. Next spring, you could take Venice and I could
backfill tyrolia from Munich to keep the pressure on Keith in Vienna.
Together, those two things might be enough to free up Adam in the east;
especially if he can keep the fleet alive.
Write if you can.
- Steve
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:15 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
Assuming that something eventually does break between Germany and France,
we should have some sort of plan ready. Right now we are in almost
perfect position with respects to each other in that we can not really
harm each other. This will continue to be true even when you take
Sevastopol. We just need to get my fleet out of the Ionian--perhaps you
can dislodge it when the time comes, and I'd be happy to disband it.
I do have a favor to ask. Would you consider taking Bulgaria with a
fleet this turn? That is, moving Bla-Bul/ec, Con S Bla-Bul/ec, Ank-Bla?
With your fleet in Bul, it would be very difficult for us to stab each
other.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:16 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi,
Thanks for the letter; it's been way too long since we last talked.
I was very impressed with your last set of moves. Even knowing now what you
ordered then, I don't see any way GR could have made progress. Sure, I
could have taken Vienna, but that wouldn't have helped Russia at all and it
would have committed me against you, something I'm not yet ready to do BTW.
It's only 1906 afterall; I figure our bridges might be in flames, but they
aren't totally burnt.
Also:
> I think you will stab Russia soon. ..(snip).. Are you going
> to wait until then to stab France? That's what I would do.
The more we play, the more I believe we think alike. In the earlier game,
you said something about how you play France that I totally agreed with.
Now you say stab Russia first and France later, again exactly what I'm
thinking. However, it probably won't happen right away; I plan on
pressuring you for one more year at least, just to keep everyone honest.
> You won't be able to get enough centers to win
> then, would you?
That's the big question for me, isn't it? For you, though, assuming no one
reaches 18, what piece of the board gets you a three way?
Write if you can. The game is still very fluid; the only one shut out
long-term is Russia. I think we all see that.
Thanks.
- Steve
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:18 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> If you, Russia and I work together against Germany, he
> will be in a tight spot. You and Russia will do most of the work since
> your centers are the ones threatened by Germany.
That's certainly an option, but I'm wary of making the first move against Germany.
If Germany does stab Russia, why not try an AFG alliance? With Russia preoccupied,
you can afford to assist me against Italy, giving us both builds to help keep G in check.
> I can't attack Italy right now because all my units are spoken for in
> defending against Germany and Russia.
Really? How is F Ion helping you against GR?
> However, if you withdraw
> from Italy, Italy becomes a threat to me.
Well, if Germany does come after me, I must certainly withdraw from the Med. It will
be too late then to do anything about Italy.
If you move Ion-Adr and consolidate your army positions then you will have a very
secure position. And if you establish an alliance with G or R then things are even
better. Might that lead to FA cooperation against Italy?
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:21 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
Hi, I see that moving Ion-Adr would benefit you, but I don't see how it
benefits me. I am in a noose already, and I don't need one more enemy.
At best, it looks like I would simply gain nothing by letting you invade
Italy. At worst, Italy would attack me out of revenge, or you would come
conquer me once you took the Italian centers.
Once you move your fleet from Mid, Germany will stab you.
What is the downside to your moving Mid-Eng. You are worried that Italy
is going to take Marseilles?
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:24 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
Thanks for withdrawing from Bel! :-)
Keith sent me another of his paranoia letters, saying that you're going to take both
Nwy and War since AI is now invulnerable, then you'll move into Nth and attack me,
so I have no choice but to advance to Eng, blah, blah....
You can rest assured that I have learned not to believe a word he says, but he does
have a good point that you have growth prospects against R whereas I'm basically stuck,
and if Keith does stymie FGR progress in the east, what then?
I have been trying to convince Keith to help me against Italy, but he says that he
can't while he has to fend off GR. Naturally, he suggested that Adam and I move
against you while Austria comes along for the ride and that will take care of all our
problems. (And monkeys might fly out of my butt!)
If it does appear that FGR will not make any progress against AI, I wonder if FGA
would be feasible? If Keith really would then help me against Italy, I would have
no problem with seeing you achieve growth against Russia. OTOH, I would have to trust
Keith to actually assist me rather than maintain AI, and right now I have my doubts.
What do you think of all this?
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:25 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany
and Russia in 'gutsy':
> Keith and Raine are working well together, but I think Keith is calling the
> shots.
I think you're right.
> a likely set of eastern orders will be:
I agree that AI will probably pop F Bul.
> Do either one of you see a good way to get Keith back to five centers or of
> breaking the line next year?
Italy might not be able to bounce Russian Sev-Arm next Spring without risking Rum.
And maybe Gal S Bul-Rum this season would keep Rum open - but then Austria retreats
to Arm to seal that off, and AI units in Bud/Ser/Bul/Bla can probably protect Rum.
Would it make sense to delay the capture of Sev and do Gal/Ukr S Bul-Rum??
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:27 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Germany in 'gutsy':
> The more we play, the more I believe we think alike. In the earlier game,
> you said something about how you play France that I totally agreed with.
> Now you say stab Russia first and France later, again exactly what I'm
> thinking. However, it probably won't happen right away; I plan on
> pressuring you for one more year at least, just to keep everyone honest.
Well, you certainly should not tell me when you plan to stab. I am
assuming you've already told Russia that you will take Norway. He's been
telling me that Norway was just a loan until you needed it. The question
is whether you move Gal-War or not. I am thinking that you do not want
Russia to get any builds. Once I am out of Sevastopol, there shouldn't
be any reason that Russia and I would want to fight each other, and
Russia should see that he is not able to take Rumania.
> That's the big question for me, isn't it? For you, though, assuming no one
> reaches 18, what piece of the board gets you a three way?
If you are a threat to win, then I won't need a particularly large part
of the board. Just enough to keep you out of my centers.
> Write if you can. The game is still very fluid; the only one shut out
> long-term is Russia. I think we all see that.
Yes, probably even Russia. Though he seems to say that he will follow
your orders until you actually stab him, because you haven't lied to him yet.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:28 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
I sent my last message before I received this one you just sent me:
> So...let's pretend for a second that we're still looking at an FG two-way.
> What should we be trying to do?
I think an FG two-way would be very difficult to achieve. You would probably have
too much opportunity to solo. And a French solo seems rather unlikely, so I'm thinking
I might have to settle for a three-way. The big question is who the other partner
should be.
> I'm inclined to keep Norway around for a while because I can't use the build
> unless I'm going after Adam or you and I don't really want to do either.
I agree. If we can make FGR work then it's the preferred alliance, but if we're stuck
then we have to make some difficult decisions.
> But, I'm not sure what we should do next.
Ideally, we should entice A/I to turn on each other. We just have to find a way to
do that. Keith seems to think Raine will attack him if I withdraw from the Med and
turn against you, but I don't think either of us wants to try such a feint. 8-)
> Are you interested in taking the Tyrolia and shifting MAO into the med?
> I'll order mun s pie - tyr if you'd like; just let me know.
I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with putting all four fleets in the Med, unless it
will certainly lead to imminent builds. Besides, I think a French army in Pie and
German in Tyl is an overall better position.
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:30 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
> Would it make sense to delay the capture of Sev and do Gal/Ukr S Bul-Rum??
Haven't really got time to look at how this might work, or
even a map to see if it's real, but Keith has told me what
he says will be his orders this year, saying there is
'nothing you can do about them':
"Sev-Rum, Ser S Sev-Rum, Tyr-Vie, Bud S Tyr-Vie.
Italy will likely dislodge your fleet (I assume you are retreating to
Bul)."
I'm not sure why everyone is so sure I'll retreat to Bul. If
I did that the fleet will be destroyed in the spring for sure,
if I retreat to Arm then Mos or War S Arm - Sev would work
better wouldn't it?
Haven't got time to check it out right now, but that was
my first impression at a glance.
Adam............
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:31 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
> I'm not sure why everyone is so sure I'll retreat to Bul. If
> I did that the fleet will be destroyed in the spring for sure,
> if I retreat to Arm then Mos or War S Arm - Sev would work
> better wouldn't it?
Arm-Sev would work (but you would need support from both Ukr and Mos to guarantee it),
but it doesn't really give you a better position than Mos-Sev. Retreating to Bul at
least forces Italy to take the time to dislodge it, whereas he can probably ignore
a fleet in Arm.
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:32 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> I am in a noose already, and I don't need one more enemy.
What you need is another ally. Who will it be, and what do you bring to the table?
> Once you move your fleet from Mid, Germany will stab you.
So maybe I'll just stay in Mid. If I move to Eng, he will have no choice but to respond.
> What is the downside to your moving Mid-Eng. You are worried that Italy
> is going to take Marseilles?
I am worried about pissing off Germany before he has another reason to move against me.
I don't need another enemy either. I will not move against G without also making peace
with Raine.
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:34 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
> I am worried about pissing off Germany before he has another reason to
> move against me. I don't need another enemy either. I will not move
> against G without also making peace with Raine.
Not even if Germany stabs Russia, or better, if Russia defends himself
against Germany? You can see the consequences between Italy and Austria
if France attacks Germany or Germany attacks France. I think it is
better for France in the long run if you and Russia take the initiative
against Germany now. You're in no danger from Italy.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:35 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
I am trying to convince France to defend against Germany, to provoke
Germany's attack. I think that I am not very successful. It is unlikely
to happen this year. Perhaps next year, though. We should have no
problem holding out until then.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:36 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
Keith is trying to convince me that you and I should attack Germany before Steve
stabs us. Of course, that would nicely let the pressure off Austria. He's claiming
that Steve will move to Nwy, War, and Nth this turn, but I think that if he really
believed that then he would not feel such a need to persuade us to turn against him.
What do you think?
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:37 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> Not even if Germany stabs Russia, or better, if Russia defends himself
> against Germany?
As the situation changes, I will reevaluate my options accordingly.
> I think it is
> better for France in the long run if you and Russia take the initiative
> against Germany now.
Do you mean it's better for Austria in the long run?
I have no problem with joining a committed partner in an initiative against Germany.
I just haven't found such a partner yet.
Rod
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:38 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
> Do you mean it's better for Austria in the long run?
That's not clear to me. If Germany withdraws, I have some more breathing
room in the near future--this is the benefit--but it is not clear that
this will be of benefit in the long run.
> I have no problem with joining a committed partner in an initiative
> against Germany. I just haven't found such a partner yet.
There aren't many of us to choose from.
They key I see this year is getting Russia to move something to Warsaw.
If Germany is kept out of Warsaw this turn, then Russia and I can start
beating him back, putting pressure on Munich and Berlin. I think Russia
is going to wait until he is stabbed by Germany though. This will mean
that it will be much more difficult for me to push Germany back, if it
will even be possible at all. If Germany is not pressured at Munich, he
will have the mobility to invade France.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:43 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
Thanks for your notes. I just came from sauna, can't beat the feeling :-)
I am ready to think about taking Bul with a fleet. I try to get Adam to
disband Bla (I guess it is not worth it but anyway) he will lose it most
likely.
Russia tells me that he has agreed to give Norway to Germany. I don't know
about this... Somehow Adam was not like he usually is. Well, the fact is
that Steve can take Norway if he wants but Adam tries to tell me that
everything is planned... Maybe it is.
I am invited to eat now. I'll check my mails after that :-)
Raine
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:48 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
I would like you to know that it would be a huge advantage to our future
relations if you would disband the southern fleet. In case of retreat to
Bul I'll dislodge you again in fall. But if you disband now we could have
some opportunity to RIG co-operation against Austria.
Raine
From - Tue Nov 20 18:10:50 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> Russia tells me that he has agreed to give Norway to Germany. I don't know
> about this... Somehow Adam was not like he usually is. Well, the fact is
> that Steve can take Norway if he wants but Adam tries to tell me that
> everything is planned... Maybe it is.
The way I understand it, Germany has been telling Russia all along that
Norway was just a loan and that he would take it eventually. The question
is whether or not Germany will move Gal-War this turn. I think Germany
will stab Russia, but I am not certain he will do it this turn.
I know Germany is trying to wedge us apart. Germany cannot win the game
unless he can take some Austrian centers, which is only possible if you
and I fight. If we remain allied, I can hold Russia and Germany back
indefinitely.
Austria
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:04 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> If you disband the southern fleet I think I could concentrate on Austria.
> There would be no friction between us 'cause there would be no units
> neighbouring :-)
On the other hand, you've done nothing but tell me you intend to
stop attacking me and then continue to attack me for quite some
time now, so I think I'll probably just pop into Bul as I planned
to do if you dislodged me and make Austria support me there as
a condition of our continued cooperation. We're doing well, both
the armies we wanted destroyed are destroyed, now if I can just
claim Sev back and get Austria to support me in Bul or Rum
then we'll be back on good terms.
We would have neighbouring units of course too, since I can
force Sev back this year, is there any reason why I wouldn't?
Adam..........
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:06 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
Sorry I didn't reply last night, I had a sudden tiredness attack
and went to be early.
> No matter what you do I don't think that Germany is going to allow you to
> get any builds. He can take Warsaw and Norway as necessary, even if you
> did manage to get both Sev and Rum this year.
I don't think he will take War, but I doubt that Rum would come
my way unless you helped anyway.
Here's what I'm thinking at the moment. Even if we turn on Germany
we're going to need French help to really get anywhere and France
won't be able to back off away from Italy that easily. In fact,
unless Italy backed off first (in which case he'd be attacking you
or me), France needs all his units on the FI line just as much as
Italy does. In order to get French help in Germany we'd have to
get France a way out of his war with Italy, or else let him start
to win it and use the new builds against Germany.
Do you agree with this? How can France turn away from Italy
without Italy giving chase? If he did, where would Italy go to?
So if we expect or need help from France, the only way I can
see it working to my advantage is if that help comes from new
builds which France gets from Italy. The quickest way to start
that process is for me to retreat to Bul and have you support
me there. If you won't do that then please let me know quickly.
With Ion's support withdrawn and Italy having to disband, his
defence (and his offence against me) would collapse in no time
and we'd between us get the majority of the new units. If
we used these against Germany, and France did the same, then
we'd be on course for a three way F/A/R draw.
If we tried this then Bul could be swapped for Rum next year,
it would be a fleet in Rum as you desired, and everyone except
Raine and Steve benifits becasue the draw would likely be between
you and I and Rod.
Or am I missing something? Would this make a French solo too
likely?
Adam............
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:07 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
Hummm. So what do you think? Retreat to Arm in order to
guarentee Sev, or retreat to Bul and enable Italy to support
Sev? Either way the fleet is destroyed if I don't put it
in Sev by the fall.
Damn, I wanted to retreat to Bul just to annoy Raine, I
don't know why he's bothering to write to me these days,
I can't believe a word he says since he just keeps repeating
that he's going to stop attacking me now, just do this
one last thing. Bah.
Adam...........
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:08 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
I have been talking with France. He is unwilling to move against Germany
unless we make the first move. He has enough units to defend against
Italy for now, and he could move Mid-Eng. He doesn't want to do this
because he is afraid that he will bear the brunt of Germany's attack.
However, if he sees that you and I are united against Germany, it will
put his fears at ease.
Now, I cannot attack Italy while you and Germany are breathing down my
neck. I feel like I am in a noose. However, if you and I can settle our
differences this turn, which I think will happen whether we intend to or
not, because I think that my moves will see to it that we are disentangled.
The sooner we make moves against Germany, the sooner France can consider
joining. I woul dlike to evict Germany from Galacia as I mentioned, and
to do that I would like to have my move from Sev-Rum succeed. I would
also like to see you make sure that Germany does not take Warsaw from
you.
If Germany does take Warsaw (he tells me he is not planning to this year,
but this doesn't mean anything since I would not advertise my stab of
someone either), all bets are off, because I don't think Russia would be
viable after that. If Germany does not take Germany, either because you
bounce him or because he decides not to take it, then I think there is a
good chance we will be able to cooperate. You can see from the moves
that you and Germany will not be able to take Rum or any Austrian centers
by force, and Germany is not I think going to sit idle and wait for
something to happen.
Whatever you decide to do, good luck in the coming turn, and I look
forward to cooperating once again.
Austria
p.s. Let Germany dislodge you from Norway (or even better, move Nwy-Nth to
bounce him) so that you can choose your retreat or disband based on what
moves Germany does. If he takes Warsaw you might want to disband it or
else retreat to Nwg to help France.
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:12 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> I would like you to know that it would be a huge advantage to our future
> relations if you would disband the southern fleet. In case of retreat to
> Bul I'll dislodge you again in fall. But if you disband now we could have
> some opportunity to RIG co-operation against Austria.
But you're still lying. You can't attack Austria becasue
as soon as he withdraws his support for you from Ion
France starts to make headway into your homeland.
You're offering things you can't actually provide!
Adam.........
From - Tue Nov 20 22:01:16 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
> Hummm. So what do you think? Retreat to Arm in order to
> guarentee Sev, or retreat to Bul and enable Italy to support
> Sev? Either way the fleet is destroyed if I don't put it
> in Sev by the fall.
You can still guarantee Sev with the fleet in Bul: Bul-Bla, Mos S
Ukr-Sev. Or if we don't expect Sev to hold with support from Bla then
Bul-Bla isn't even necessary. Retreating to Bul does mean that the
fleet will be popped while your army advances to Sev. It would be very
nice to retain that advance unit, but pulling it back to Sev (from Arm)
doesn't seem like much of a gain. Unless you think that a fleet in Sev
will really be more useful than an army in Sev, I think the retreat to
Bul is better (for next season at least).
Rod
From - Wed Nov 21 17:02:07 2001
:: Judge: NZMB Game: Gutsy Variant: Standard
:: Deadline: S1906R Wed Nov 21 2001 19:13:04 +1300
Retreat orders for Spring of 1906. (gutsy.023)
Russia: Fleet Black Sea -> Bulgaria (east coast).
The next phase of 'gutsy' will be Movement for Fall of 1906.
The deadline for orders will be Sat Nov 24 2001 20:00:00 +1300.
