Fall 1907
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From - Thu Dec 06 16:17:51 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
Wow, I got into Vienna. Can't keep it, but Adam can take Galicia and I can
take Tyrolia. No deadlock yet. :)
- Steve
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:03 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
You might consider dislodging France from Piedmont this turn. I've kept
them out of Tyrolia for one more turn, but there is nothing more I can do
to keep them out of Tyrolia.
You might have to use Tys to cut support, and you'd have to decide
whether you'd want me to support Tunis or Nap-Tys, but the risk might be
worth it in the long run. If France and Germany are in Tyr and Pie, they
can take Tus or Ven, and then Rome, etc. Even an extra build won't help
you, because they will just have to guess whether to attack Tus or Ven,
and eventually you will guess wrong.
I may be able to support Ven from Tri if everything works out okay, but
don't count on this.
This is a big threat to us both. If Venice falls, then I won't be able
to withstand the pressure from Russia and Germany, and we will both collapse.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:06 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
I put the question to you again, what will it take from me to get you to
attack Germany? You'll gain nothing by sitting still. As you can see,
Germany has removed Galacia, and it looks like he is going go try to work
with France.
Whatever Germany is telling you about attacking France, don't believe
it. Germany seems to have abandoned you in the East, since it is clear
you two gain nothing by working together.
Is Germany trying to throw you a bone by letting you keep Norway until he
decides that he needs it? You could lose Norway and not be any weaker.
He is not going to put an army there.
I suggest moving Mos-Stp and supporting Norway. This way he will not be
able to take Norway by force without using all three of his fleets. I
will start moving against Germany if you don't interfere. We should get
this ball rolling.
Remember, Germany will come for you, sooner or later. He may wait quite
a while. But, I don't see that you will ever get any more supply centers
unless you move against Germany. Austria is no threat to Russia.
Germany is the threat. The longer you wait to attack him, the more
dangerous he becomes to you in the long run.
Italy is going to move his fleet towards the Ionian Sea to replace my
fleet there. Sevastopol is not going to be in any danger.
Let me know what you think.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:12 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
> Wow, I got into Vienna. Can't keep it, but Adam can take Galicia and I can
> take Tyrolia. No deadlock yet. :)
Yes, it appears AI weren't quite as clever as I had feared. We still have a lot of work to do, but our chances of success are good. :-)
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:18 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany
and Russia in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
Well, that worked out better than I had hoped! The downside is that if Raine really
had been serious about turning on Austria after I withdrew, he probably won't
consider it any longer now that I've continued to attack him despite my assurances
to the contrary. OTOH, we couldn't afford to allow a stalemate, and it looks like
attacking AI just might work after all. :-)
Mos S Sev, Ukr S War-Gal is probably a good move, though it can be thwarted by Bud
S Rum-Gal or Bud-Gal, Rum-Ukr, with Bul S Ser-Rum protecting Rum. We could try
something really clever like Vie-Bud and/or War S Bud-Gal, but Vie might get
popped. I think we could live with A Vie being rebuilt in Mun as long as we get
Tyl in the exchange, but we might lose both Vie and Tyl (Ven S Tyl, Bud S Tri-Vie)
unless Pie-Ven - but then this risks Pie.
The other option is Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl, which guarantees either Vie or Tyl, at the
risk of a bounce in Gal. I could also try for Tus, though I'd have to outguess Raine.
Thoughts?
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:24 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Italy in
'gutsy':
Raine,
I know you're not going to believe anything I say now, but I shall tell you what
happened anyway:
Germany and I planned to do Mun S Pie-Tyl, because we thought it had a slim chance
of popping an Austrian army and taking Vie in the Fall. I decided to also do Wes-Spa,
Lyo-Mar to give you room to "consider" attacking Austria, but then I got suspicious.
I feared that you were asking me to withdraw not so that you could attack Austria,
but so that you and he could erect a permanent stalemate line and *never* attack each
other. I'm ready to turn against G when I have assistance, but I did not want to be
in a situation where I had no choice but to attack him without help. So I changed
my mind and decided to move aggressively in order to keep my options open. I'm sorry
if I misjudged you.
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:28 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
Keith,
Suppose you reclaim Vie with Tyl-Boh, Bud S Tri-Vie, with Tyl retreating to Tri.
Suppose you also order Ion-Gre, Ser S Rum-Bul. (I assume Raine will do Con-Aeg
rather than Con S Bul.) Maybe Adam takes Rum, but you can call that a "concession",
and at least you stay even.
So then maybe GR will continue attacking you and Raine will also join in the fun.
Or maybe I'll keep Raine busy and Adam will be happy to have Rum and decide that G
is his new target.
Are you willing to take the risk?
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:30 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
You can believe that I am considering all of the options. However, right
now there seems to be little benefit to me in attacking Italy. I have
been asking for some breathing room from all sides to be able to do this,
but no one is providing it.
Almost certainly my army in Tyrolia will be dislodged, or if I dislodged
Germany from Vienna with it, I will have no open supply centers. It
doesn't do me any good to attack Italy, then.
The trouble I see with your proposition is that it gives you what you
want, but you don't offer me anything in return. Why don't you move a
unit towards Germany, say Mid-Eng?
What do you think is going to happen if you and Germany begin to fight?
First, it will instantly cause a conflict between Italy and I. Second,
Russia will join you against Germany. Russia knows that I am no threat to
him, and I will be even less of a threat when fighting Italy.
I still do not understand why you have not already moved something
against Germany. What is it you are worried about?
Consider convincing Russia to move Mos-Stp and Nwy-Nth.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:39 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> France did talk about the possibility to retreat from Med but I don't
> believe it untill I see it. By retreating let's say Pie-Mar and
> Wes-Spa(sc) I would have a chance to hit Austria with force.
It's unfortunate that France didn't move at least one of his
fleets back during the last phase, but it's encouraging
to see your Bla fleet heading out to take up the slack
from Austrian F Ion. I was surprised when Keith told me
that you intended to do that since I'd have thought him
less willing to give you your freedom. Curious.
> We have talked about it. The problem is that we can talk about it but I
> want to see some action :-) If I make the 1st move against Austria FG will
> take the advantage G stabs you and F me. I don't want that.
Of course it must be up to France to retreat enough to
let you replace F Ion, but not enough for you to start
to attack France in turn. The stalemate in the Med would
be expected to continue even after his partial retreat
I'd have thought.
> You can harm France. You just need Steve to work with you. You have a nice
> 'no moves' situation up there. Why not change it to co-operation against
> F.
Steve could do some work against France, but I still don't see
any place for F Nwy in that battle. Three fleets surround Norway
at the moment, if Germany wanted to get all of those in to
MAO it would be difficult, there just isn't enough room to
get yet another fleet there too.
> As a sign of goodwill I can tell you that my most probable moves in east
> are Arm-Sev (this should not be problem as I tell it to you in advance)
> Bla S Bul
> Bul S Rum
As I mentioned, I was pleased to see F Bla sail westward,
I'll continue to try and convince France to retreat enough
to allow you to resolve your dependence on Austria so that
we can move in on him.
> Then I would like to ask you
> to not build _any_ southern fleets. I would be willing to retreat from Bla
> and give Rum to you but only if you can promise not to build a southern
> fleet.
Well, of course Rum isn't really yours to give, it's currently
under Austrian control but has been disputed between he and I
for a while now. Still, I see your point and I'm sure we could
broker a deal of some kind, perhaps Bul AND Rum, afterall you'll
still have all of Turkey, Tri, Ser, Gre etc. while I'd barely
be back where I was years ago.
Adam........
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:52 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
Appologies, I'm not putting as much time into this game
as I really should. I have no excuses, even work is beginging
to slow down ready for the Xmas break now. Perhaps I'm getting
into the spirit a little early?
> I put the question to you again, what will it take from me to get you to
> attack Germany? You'll gain nothing by sitting still. As you can see,
> Germany has removed Galacia, and it looks like he is going go try to work
> with France.
Nothing he has done has been a surprise to me. France and Germany
are worried that you and Italy are trying to get into some
stalemate position that they sent a link for but I didn't
bother to read. It seems Tyr is important for that position
anyway which is why they attacked Tyr. They were surprised
to get Vie instead, but I guess the stalemate position could
be more important than even a center.
What would you have to do? I'm not sure. A stalemate looks
probable, but it's not inevitable yet and Italy is talking
to France quite a lot. France and I have talked about your
suggestions but can't really see anyway to get a good strong
surprise attack on Germany without risking you and italy
taking centers from us. You and Italy seem very tight,
to the point where your press is suspected of being coordinated,
it's a worry.
> Whatever Germany is telling you about attacking France, don't believe
> it. Germany seems to have abandoned you in the East, since it is clear
> you two gain nothing by working together.
All he's ever said about attacking France was that it might
be a good plan once Austria is taken care of but before Italy
has fallen.
> Is Germany trying to throw you a bone by letting you keep Norway until he
> decides that he needs it? You could lose Norway and not be any weaker.
> He is not going to put an army there.
I still think he's basically genuinely concerned about
you. The fact it's taking us a long time, and a huge force,
to take even one of your centers is just making his fear
seem more realistic. He says that he's letting me keep
Norway in order to keep the pressure on you, without it
(or another center to make up) you and Italy would be
able to begin making inroads into Russia.
> But, I don't see that you will ever get any more supply centers
> unless you move against Germany.
Rum, probably Ser, possibly Bud. Turkey is much easier for
me to reach than him, Bul. There are plenty of centers for
us both if we could get just two or three from AI the rest
would follow. I do agree that the stalemate is pretty likely
though, but I'm not sure that Italy wouldn't be the first
to break even if it happens.
> Italy is going to move his fleet towards the Ionian Sea to replace my
> fleet there. Sevastopol is not going to be in any danger.
Indeed this is what makes me think Italy would be the first
to turn, if he has his own fleet in Ion then he can hold out
against France himself and no longer needs your help, in which
case why not take Gre or Ser or Tri?
What can you do to convince me to attack Germany?
I still think it's a case of explaining where that
second supply center comes from after I take Berlin
and have Norway removed as a result. Germany would
have two fleets on StP in a year, he'd have armies
all ready to turn on War, as you pointed out yourself
a few moves ago when he had it surrounded. France isn't
going to be much help, he's really a long way away
from the action in the Med unless he can get some
builds there. Germany can disband Hol and Den without
even effecting the fighting force he has in the area.
I can't see how the attack could be sustained.
Adam.........
From - Thu Dec 06 16:18:56 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France and Germany in 'gutsy':
> Well, that worked out better than I had hoped! The downside
> is that if Raine really had been serious about turning on Austria
> after I withdrew, he probably won't consider it any longer now that
> I've continued to attack him despite my assurances to the
> contrary.
I think he might be serious you know, even Keith told me
that the F Bla was heading out to replace F Ion. I can't
see what Italy gains from continuing the stalemate if
he doesn't need that fleet.
I'm sure that he'll be as willing now as before, which
is still a case of you having to move away before he'll
consider it.
> OTOH, we couldn't afford to allow a stalemate, and it
> looks like attacking AI just might work after all. :-)
I was surprised to see Vie fall. Of course it's three
on two there and I'm sure Vie will be Austrian again
by the fall.
> Mos S Sev, Ukr S War-Gal is probably a good move,
That's basically what I was thinking, Italy moving his
fleet out of Bla was definately good for me.
> though it can be thwarted by Bud S Rum-Gal or Bud-Gal,
> Rum-Ukr, with Bul S Ser-Rum protecting Rum.
Surely Bud is needed to take back Vie isn't it? Can
we realy see Austria doing something other than taking
Vie back? Especially since it destroys the army
totaly.
> We could try something really clever like Vie-Bud
> and/or War S Bud-Gal, but Vie might get popped.
I like it, but I really can't see Bud going anything
other than supporting Tri to Vie. We'll be able to
take Tyr while he destoys A Vie but I can't see us
holding onto any Austrian centers right now.
> I think we could live with A Vie being rebuilt in Mun
I hope so, becasue short of retreating it to Boh or
possibly back to Gal I can't see it surviving.
> as long as we get Tyl in the exchange, but we might
> lose both Vie and Tyl (Ven S Tyl, Bud S Tri-Vie) unless
> Pie-Ven - but then this risks Pie.
Tus can cut Pie's support, so it has to be Pie that
tries to move into Tyr.
Mun S Pie - Tyr
Boh S Vie
Vie H
If Tyr moves to Vie, or to cut Boh support, then it
can't be supported so it falls to Mun and Pie. If
Tyr stands still then it's support is cut so even
Bud and Tri together can't take Ven.
I suspect that will give us Tyr, but at the expense
of a slight hole in the French/Italian line and
at the price that Munich will be occupied so Germany's
rebuild would have to be in Berlin. It's unlikely to
give us Venice since I think Austria will give Tyr
support into Vie from Bud and Tri.
> The other option is Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl, which guarantees
> either Vie or Tyl, at the risk of a bounce in Gal.
That would probably work just as well, I think the
bounce in Gal unlikely.
> Thoughts?
Looks to me like a straight choice between
having A Pie in Tyr or having A Vie in Tyr.
I prefer the former since (A) We'd soon be
in Sil as well, effectively we'd have an
extra unit against Austria (B) It doesn't
even risk loosing Gal unless we get Vie
and (C) the hole in Frances lines could
probably be manipulated to give Riane
chance to replace F Ion with his own unit
at little risk.
Or did I miss something again?
Adam.........
From - Thu Dec 06 16:19:10 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
> I'm sure that he'll be as willing now as before, which
> is still a case of you having to move away before he'll
> consider it.
I'd like to give Raine a little room for shenanigans, but I'm afraid that if I pull
back then AI might consummate a formal stalemate line. I'm not sure that it's worth
the risk.
> > though it can be thwarted by Bud S Rum-Gal or Bud-Gal,
> > Rum-Ukr, with Bul S Ser-Rum protecting Rum.
>
> Surely Bud is needed to take back Vie isn't it?
Bud is necessary for Austria to guarantee Vie, but he might guess that we consider
it a lost cause and risk committing less force against Vie (hoping that Germany will
try to relocate Tyl) in order to bounce you in Gal. OTOH, I think you're right that
he'll take the sure thing, especially since it's a home supply center and AI can
survive even if you're in Gal.
> > I think we could live with A Vie being rebuilt in Mun
>
> I hope so, becasue short of retreating it to Boh or
> possibly back to Gal I can't see it surviving.
Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl keeps the unit alive. It either makes it to Tyl or survives in Vie.
> Mun S Pie - Tyr
> Boh S Vie
> Vie H
That's another good option that guarantees either Tyl or Vie.
> I think Austria will give Tyr
> support into Vie from Bud and Tri.
Or Tyl-Boh, Bud S Tri-Vie, Tyl retreat to Tri. This *guarantees* Vie for Austria.
> Looks to me like a straight choice between
> having A Pie in Tyr or having A Vie in Tyr.
I think you're right.
> I prefer the former since....
I prefer the latter, because I think Pie-Tyr gives AI better opportunity to achieve
the stalemate line (assuming that they think of it and trust each other enough).
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:19:17 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
Keith keeps harping on MAO-Eng, and he wants me to ask you to do Mos-StP and Nwy-Nth.
Of course, that might leave Sev a bit vulnerable. ;-)
Now, if I really believed that A/I would attack each other if I moved against Germany
then it would be a viable option. I just doubt that's the case. But I fear that we
may soon have no other options.
I'm happy to stick with FGR as long as we both think it has a chance of succeeding.
But it may be prudent to develop a contingency plan. OTOH, I would hate to see us
attack G before A/I break and discover that *we* are the suckers.
How do you feel about our prospects?
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:19:13 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> I still do not understand why you have not already moved something
> against Germany. What is it you are worried about?
I am worried about being in a war from which everyone benefits but me.
> Consider convincing Russia to move Mos-Stp and Nwy-Nth.
I'll ask him, but I think I already know what he's going to say....
Rod
From - Thu Dec 06 16:19:20 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
> I am worried about being in a war from which everyone benefits but me.
I don't see one of those in the future. You need only one little nudge
in order to get the Italian centers.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 16:55:36 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France and Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam and Rod,
Keith and Raine are far from dead, but their stalemate line is far from
assured either. The key point about the southern stalemate positions is
that AI does not need Tyrolia. Piedmont is the most important territory.
How that affects my defense of Vienna I haven't worked out yet.
Also, I'm sure that AI (Keith at least) recognizes that Turnis can be
sacrificed to form the line. That might be a hard sell to Raine, but Raine
has to know he is not in a good position. The second part of the southern
positions is that the Black Sea is irrelevant to AI. Italy could afford to
leave Bla open last turn; it cost him nothing while allowing Raine to
support Bul ad infinitum.
>From what I know of Keith, I'd expect him to retake Vienna this fall with
tyr - boh and a supported attack. The only reason he would leave me in
Vienna is if he were to disband the Ionian expecting a rebuild in Trieste
next year. That is not Keith's style; there's no way he will give up the
naval presence that easily.
Bottom line is that I see FGR v AI for a couple of more turns yet. I won't
mess with either one of you as long as there's progress to be made against
AI. The one thing I'm very sure of is that if we back off, AI will form
their line so fast our only option will be fighting among ourselves (or a
5-way). I don't want either.
Talk to you later.
- Steve
From - Thu Dec 06 16:55:43 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
> I know you're not going to believe anything I say now, but I shall tell you
> what happened anyway:
Rod, no problem. I told you than I won't believe a word you say. I hope my
moves are encouraging you to turn against Germany. And thank you for
telling what happened :-)
> Germany and I planned to do Mun S Pie-Tyl, because we thought it had a slim
> chance of popping an Austrian army and taking Vie in the Fall. I
> decided
> to also do Wes-Spa, Lyo-Mar to give you room to "consider" attacking
> Austria, but then I got suspicious.
> I feared that you were asking me to withdraw not so that you could attack
> Austria, but so that you and he could erect a permanent stalemate line
> and *never* attack each other. I'm ready to turn against G when I have
> assistance, but I did not want to be
> in a situation where I had no choice but to attack him without help. So I
> changed my mind and decided to move aggressively in order to keep my
> options open. I'm sorry if I misjudged you.
Like I told you no problem. I didn't realy believe your story in the first
place. You will face problems when Germany gets a build from Austria AND
takes Norway. Steve has to stab you in order to win. But feel free to do
it your way. I will defend as well as I can to prevent you from getting
centers from me. In the end you might get one but I'll make sure Germany
will get more and faster from A and R.
There is still another way too. Please, consider to retreat from Med. No
need to tell me about your actions (I won't believe them) just do it.
Raine
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:20 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi, here is a message I got from Germany recently:
> What are you waiting for?
Yea, I know; I just couldn't pull the trigger.
I looked at the fall position and my first thought was to stab
Adam. But, what would that have gotten me? I figure you and
Raine are pretty tight and those centers are mine anyhow (Norway
at least) whenever I want them.
As I see it, the next break in the alliance structure will come in
pie/tyr/ven or sev/rum. Those are the hotspots; it would have
been silly for me to commit last year while those areas are
unresolved.
That said, I don't expect this game to end in a five-way or even a
four-way for that matter. Some sub-set of us will make it down to
three, at least.
- Steve
So, who are going to be the final three people in the draw? France
looks like he has a pretty good shot. Probably either me or Italy, but
not both, and one of you and Germany. You and Germany will not share in
any draw, though you could easily share in a draw with me or France.
If your pursue this course of action as Germany's follower, he will take
you out at some point. Maybe not right now, but as you can see, he
thinks he can take your centers whenever he wants to.
The only way for you to get into the draw is to make sure that Germany
is not in it. The way to do this is to coordinate with France and me
against Germany (or, you could also coordinate with Italy and France
against Germany, but I think that this is less likely to happen since I
can so easily cause France to get a number of centers, while Italy would
be little help to either you or France initially).
The way I see it, if we work against Germany, we can have an AFR draw.
If things continue on their present course, then we have FGI or perhaps
AFG.
Do you see this? I assume you want to be part of a draw and not just to
survive as long as possible but be eliminated by Germany in the end.
Let me know what you think.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:21 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
If you make any token move against Germany (like Gas-Bur and Mid-Eng),
the rewards for you will be great, almost instantly. If you make the
first move, I will withdraw support from Italy, and Russia will move
against Germany. I've shown you why it makes no sense for me to attack
Italy right now. I won't get any builds from it, and Russia is likely to
attack me anyway.
But, next turn, with your cooperation and thus Russia's, I would do it,
and I would be able to build.
You won't get German centers right away, likely, though it is quite
possible if Russia moves Nwy-Nth, but you'll get Italian centers
immediately, and you'll have time to get into position to get some
Germany ones.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:23 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
I feel like I am very close to getting France or Russia to move against
Germany. Although I could be deluding myself. Maybe I am not close at
all. France expects to get Italian centers if Russia and I attack
Germany. I think that Russia and France will be the ones
squeezed out, though I hope they don't realize it.
Any news on your front? I plan to move Ser-Rum again. Can I count on
your support, or do you have something else planned?
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:24 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
I hope you can consider Mos-Stp to defend Stp and you could attack France
with Germany's help.
> It's unfortunate that France didn't move at least one of his
> fleets back during the last phase, but it's encouraging
> to see your Bla fleet heading out to take up the slack
> from Austrian F Ion. I was surprised when Keith told me
> that you intended to do that since I'd have thought him
> less willing to give you your freedom. Curious.
I guess Keith made a lucky guess :-)
> > As a sign of goodwill I can tell you that my most probable moves in east
> > are Arm-Sev (this should not be problem as I tell it to you in advance)
> > Bla S Bul
> > Bul S Rum
Sorry about the last two. Last minute changes :-)I guess the most
important move, in order to keep our relations good, was Arm-Sev, I mean
to tell it to you in advance.
> As I mentioned, I was pleased to see F Bla sail westward,
> I'll continue to try and convince France to retreat enough
> to allow you to resolve your dependence on Austria so that
> we can move in on him.
Adam, I appreciate your talks to France. I am happy that there is at least
talks about retreat in Med.
> Well, of course Rum isn't really yours to give, it's currently
> under Austrian control but has been disputed between he and I
> for a while now. Still, I see your point and I'm sure we could
> broker a deal of some kind, perhaps Bul AND Rum, afterall you'll
> still have all of Turkey, Tri, Ser, Gre etc. while I'd barely
> be back where I was years ago.
Sorry, I meant to divide the Austrian centers. I wanted to make it clear
that I have no desire to get Rumania.
Have you talked to Steve of the possibility of attacking British island?
Now you have a chance to move to Stp to make it harder for Steve in case
of betreyal(sp?) .
Please let me know how you feel.
Raine
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:26 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
I blame myself again... why did I move from Black Sea!?! Well, my
intention was to give Adam some room to move Mos-Stp. I should not have
done that. It is always easy to say afterwards.
> You might consider dislodging France from Piedmont this turn. I've kept
> them out of Tyrolia for one more turn, but there is nothing more I can do
> to keep them out of Tyrolia.
Thank you for keeping GF out from Tyrolia. It is essential for us.
> You might have to use Tys to cut support, and you'd have to decide
> whether you'd want me to support Tunis or Nap-Tys, but the risk might be
> worth it in the long run. If France and Germany are in Tyr and Pie, they
> can take Tus or Ven, and then Rome, etc. Even an extra build won't help
> you, because they will just have to guess whether to attack Tus or Ven,
> and eventually you will guess wrong.
I would like you to support Tunis hold. If I don't talk about this before
the moves take Ion S Tun as default. At least I'd like you to order that
way.
Rod gave me a heartbraking explanation why he did not retreat like he
promised... Now he will consider the retreat again :-| I don't believe a
word he says untill I got some truth out of him.
Do you think we could get Adam to move Mos-Stp now that he has less
pressure against Sev? At least let's try it.
Germany has not answered my mails :-( So far the explanation has been
'chances to get you to attack Austria were zero so I did not bother to
reply' !
Do you think you are able to get one open home center after fall retreats?
I think I can have one open home center. We should think about possible
exchange of centers between us or dispanding and rebuilding. That is
always surprising move. Now I don't mean Ionian Sea. I need your fleet
there as long as France won't retreat from Med. But we could think about
SC shuffle in balkans. I have not looked at the map with care but I think
we are not in desperate situation (in fact our situation would be good if
I had not moved Bla-Con, that was a stupid move from me!).
Raine
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:33 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Nothing he has done has been a surprise to me. France and Germany
> are worried that you and Italy are trying to get into some
> stalemate position that they sent a link for but I didn't
> bother to read. It seems Tyr is important for that position
> anyway which is why they attacked Tyr. They were surprised
> to get Vie instead, but I guess the stalemate position could
> be more important than even a center.
Yes, Tyrolia is important because it will allow them to break into Italy,
and for Germany to be able to get the Austrian centers once they have Venice.
> What would you have to do? I'm not sure. A stalemate looks
> probable, but it's not inevitable yet and Italy is talking
> to France quite a lot. France and I have talked about your
> suggestions but can't really see anyway to get a good strong
> surprise attack on Germany without risking you and italy
> taking centers from us. You and Italy seem very tight,
> to the point where your press is suspected of being coordinated,
> it's a worry.
Which centers are you worried that I could take from you? And any fears
you have about Italy should be erased once he moves Con-Aeg.
The only power I can get supply centers from now is Italy. His centers
are adjacent to mind. Yours are far away. There is a great deal of
tension in the arrangement of Italy's and my units. He essentially is
surrounding me. I would try to take Bulgaria, for instance, but I am
afraid that in doing so, I would lose Rumania.
If you have some plan that would make you feel secure, I would be happy
to follow it.
In any case, if you expect that Germany is going to destroy you
eventually, why not try to do something about it? Even if you thought
that I would take all your centers, which seems highly unlikely to me,
why not die in action rather than in inaction? It certainly can't be
much fun for you just sitting around, doing nothing, and waiting for
Germany to get powerful enough that he will come after you.
Right now you should see that Austria is simply not powerful enough to
take any of your supply centers. And there is enough distance between
our centers, or there can be, that any threat I would pose would be easy
to see coming.
> I still think he's basically genuinely concerned about
> you. The fact it's taking us a long time, and a huge force,
> to take even one of your centers is just making his fear
> seem more realistic. He says that he's letting me keep
> Norway in order to keep the pressure on you, without it
> (or another center to make up) you and Italy would be
> able to begin making inroads into Russia.
You have a number or armies put against me, but I also have a number of
armies. Austria is very difficult to attack, as you can see. But this
doesn't mean that I am much of an offensive force. Austria is easy to
defend because it is compact, and all of my armies are right next to each
other. In order to attack, I need to spread out, and that is when I
become vulnerable. And you know this well. You attacked me before when
I was most vulnerable--when I moved my units in position to attack
Germany, with your help, or so I thought.
> Rum, probably Ser, possibly Bud. Turkey is much easier for
> me to reach than him, Bul. There are plenty of centers for
> us both if we could get just two or three from AI the rest
> would follow. I do agree that the stalemate is pretty likely
> though, but I'm not sure that Italy wouldn't be the first
> to break even if it happens.
>From what Germany tells me, he will attack you the instant I lose
Rumania? Do you doubt his own words that I sent you?
> Indeed this is what makes me think Italy would be the first
> to turn, if he has his own fleet in Ion then he can hold out
> against France himself and no longer needs your help, in which
> case why not take Gre or Ser or Tri?
Italy is in danger of losing Venice to France and Germany. If Germany
gets into Tyrolia, then France can attack Tuscany to cut support, and
Italy will lose Venice without help from Austria. It is also a difficult
maneuver to get my fleet out of the Ionian Sea and put his fleet in
without allowing France the opportunity to take Tunis. This is at least
a year off, in any case.
Plus, Italy knows that if he takes Greece or tries to take Trieste, then
Austria will collapse. He is not going to attack me for one center only
to watch you and Germany take all the others. Then he's in the situation
where he is definitely surrounded by powerful enemies. Now that I am
weak and under pressure from you and Germany, Italy does not have
anything to worry about.
> What can you do to convince me to attack Germany?
> I still think it's a case of explaining where that
> second supply center comes from after I take Berlin
> and have Norway removed as a result. Germany would
> have two fleets on StP in a year, he'd have armies
> all ready to turn on War, as you pointed out yourself
> a few moves ago when he had it surrounded. France isn't
> going to be much help, he's really a long way away
> from the action in the Med unless he can get some
> builds there. Germany can disband Hol and Den without
> even effecting the fighting force he has in the area.
>
> I can't see how the attack could be sustained.
First, France is not a long way from the action. He can move Mid-Eng and
Gas-Bur to immediately put pressure on Germany. If you move Mos-Stp and
Nwy-Nth, Germany is in a very bad position.
Your first center is Berlin. Your second is Munich (at least). If
France makes any moves against Germany, Germany is in a lot of trouble,
and he will collapse quickly. It is not really a question of sustaining
an attack. Germany will have no stamina. When his home centers are
attacked, it becomes merely a cleanup effort for you to take the rest of
Scandinavia. And Kiel. France would be content to take Holland and
Belgium, because he is going to get Italian centers too. I don't need
any German centers because I'll get Italian ones hopefully.
Austria
From - Thu Dec 06 17:48:37 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
I am talking with France and Russia at the moment. Germany is silent.
> I feel like I am very close to getting France or Russia to move against
> Germany. Although I could be deluding myself. Maybe I am not close at
> all. France expects to get Italian centers if Russia and I attack
> Germany. I think that Russia and France will be the ones
> squeezed out, though I hope they don't realize it.
I have thought that Russia is the one to go the other is not that clear.
> Any news on your front? I plan to move Ser-Rum again. Can I count on
> your support, or do you have something else planned?
You can count on my help. I am willing to work with you. I am thinking of
moving back to Black Sea but I don't know if it is a good idea... At least
Sev should fall, let me know if you have something to say for Con-Bla.
I need some sleep now. Jetlag is still effective :-)
Raine
From - Thu Dec 06 18:49:51 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> Keith keeps harping on MAO-Eng, and he wants me to ask you to do
> Mos-StP and Nwy-Nth. Of course, that might leave Sev a bit
> vulnerable. ;-)
Yeah, I'm getting pressed pretty hard to make that move from
both Raine and Keith. So much so that you have to know they
have a plan between them to try and break up RGF. They both
say it's so they can fight between themselves but that seems
unlikely to be the plan they have together. However, I don't
think it's impossible that Kieth, at least, is simply lying
to Italy to get him to do what he wants. He probably has made
no ultimate decision on which way he'd go should RGF break
up, which means it might be possible to ensure his best move
is to take on Italy.
> Now, if I really believed that A/I would attack each other if
> I moved against Germany then it would be a viable option.
> I just doubt that's the case. But I fear that we may soon
> have no other options.
That's what I'm thinking. I'm in a little more pressure than
you to make sure I chose correctly too since if Germany breaks
our aliance it will be me he attacks rather than you.
> I'm happy to stick with FGR as long as we both think it has
> a chance of succeeding. But it may be prudent to develop a
> contingency plan. OTOH, I would hate to see us attack G
> before A/I break and discover that *we* are the suckers.
>
> How do you feel about our prospects?
I feel like a rank newbie cast between a German shark and
an Austrian wolf. Both of them convince me with every press
they send so it might just be Steve's low press rate lately
that's making me tend toward getting something moving and
seeing if there's some way we can turn our forces on Germany
while leaving enough of them behind to make Keith in particular
see his best expansion options in Germany and Italy rather
than in Russia. Unfortunately, I keep getting drunk and
having trouble thinking about the board in any coherent way.
Can you see any way we could make roads into Germany
while still making it obvious that Keith and Raine have
better and easier builds with each other? They are very
mixed up togther, either one could stab for two centers
in a blink if the other didn't suspect.
I wanted to write more, make plans about exactly how we
could make a move on Germany work, but I can't see anything
that we could even start until the spring, so I'd be trying
to think three phases ahead and it turns out that I
drank more in the pub earlier than I thought I did :)
Adam..........
From - Fri Dec 07 18:18:49 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Italy in 'gutsy':
> I hope you can consider Mos-Stp to defend Stp and you could
> attack France with Germany's help.
I could encourage Germany to attack France, and I could refrain
from attacking Germany while his back was turned, but I still
maintain that there's nothing my units can do to effect France
directly. There's no way I'd get a supply center from France,
not a chance.
> Adam, I appreciate your talks to France. I am happy that there is at least
> talks about retreat in Med.
I'd like to see what you do when your dependence on Keith is
broken, I'll continue to lobby France to pull back enough to
see that happen. Can't promise anything of course.
> Have you talked to Steve of the possibility of attacking British island?
> Now you have a chance to move to Stp to make it harder for Steve in case
> of betreyal(sp?) .
I haven't really talked to Steve about attacking France
for the simple reason that I can't help in any meaningful
way. I may suggest it to him if I think he's about to
attack me, but it would be a difficult argument to win.
Adam..........
From - Fri Dec 07 18:18:54 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
Keith.
It's very apparent from press to both me and France that you
and Italy both desire the same things. You both want me to move
to Stp and you both want France to move to Eng. Obviously you
two have a plan of some kind, and since you're both saying that
your plan is to attack each other once the pressure is off
I doubt that this is the plan you have been discussing between
you.
You can see how this would make both France any myself worried
that we'd end up being the fools here. Now Raine probably doesn't
have a backup plan, Raine probably believes whatever story
you have been telling him but I think your are more savy than
that. I'm sure that whatever you are saying to Raine to convince
him to lobby for the same things you want is believeable and
probably an honest option, but I don't think you'd have completely
made up your mind what to do in the event that France and I
attacked Germany.
So here's my problem: I need to ensure that should I attack
Germany the situation with you is left in such a way that you
decide your best move is to attack Italy rather than do whatever
is it you're telling him you will do. That job will be made
considerably easier if you can answer one question:
What is it you are telling Italy you'd like to see happen
in the event France and I attacked Germany?
I hope you can answer this one because I do know that you're
right about Germany - he is just waiting until the time is
right to attack me - but hastening my own dimise by ending
up attacked on three fronts wouldn't help.
Adam...........
From - Fri Dec 07 23:59:28 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> It's very apparent from press to both me and France that you
> and Italy both desire the same things. You both want me to move
> to Stp and you both want France to move to Eng. Obviously you
> two have a plan of some kind, and since you're both saying that
> your plan is to attack each other once the pressure is off
> I doubt that this is the plan you have been discussing between
> you.
Actually, I have not been discussing this with Italy at all. I find it
amusing that you are receiving the same sorts of things from Italy and
me. I think we are both being honest with you. At least I am. It would
not be wise of us to coordinate our messages in such an obvious manner.
If something looks like a trap, it probably is not. The things that
should cause the greatest fears area the things you don't know.
> You can see how this would make both France any myself worried
> that we'd end up being the fools here. Now Raine probably doesn't
> have a backup plan, Raine probably believes whatever story
> you have been telling him but I think your are more savy than
> that. I'm sure that whatever you are saying to Raine to convince
> him to lobby for the same things you want is believeable and
> probably an honest option, but I don't think you'd have completely
> made up your mind what to do in the event that France and I
> attacked Germany.
I'm not telling Italy any story. Italy and I are tied together because of
our position, and we don't have a bond other than that. I think we both
wish that the situation were different, and we don't like having to trust
each other. I am certainly not giving orders to Italy, and in fact you
should see that he has profitted more from our relationship than I have.
Look, he has all of Turkey and Bulgaria. What do I have to show for it,
just Rumania?
I've been honest with you. I've told you what moves I would make, and
I've made them. Still you don't trust me. There is little more I can do.
The only supply centers I can take are owned by Italy now. This is
obvious from a quick look at the map. Perhaps you are concerned that
Italy and I would team up to take Sevastopol from you. It is true that
if you could be tricked, then Italy and I could take Sev. Then what. Do
you think we could take Moscow? Warsaw?
> So here's my problem: I need to ensure that should I attack
> Germany the situation with you is left in such a way that you
> decide your best move is to attack Italy rather than do whatever
> is it you're telling him you will do. That job will be made
> considerably easier if you can answer one question:
>
> What is it you are telling Italy you'd like to see happen
> in the event France and I attacked Germany?
I am not giving Italy any suggestions for his own moves, and I'm telling
him that I plan to attack Germany. This is the same thing I am telling
you. I am certainly not going to tell Italy that I want to attack him.
> I hope you can answer this one because I do know that you're
> right about Germany - he is just waiting until the time is
> right to attack me - but hastening my own dimise by ending
> up attacked on three fronts wouldn't help.
I don't know why you are playing the game, or what you are getting out of
it, but when I play, I like to be in charge of my own destiny. I would
rather try to do something if there is a possibility and risk failure
rather than being someone's puppet and sitting around waiting for them to
inevitably attack me.
The risk you take from working with me is that I could arrange with Italy
to backstab you and take Sevastopol. Actually, I think this is Italy's
plan. He has just sent me a message telling me that he was trying to get
you to move to Stp so that we could take Sev from you. However, I can
assure you that this is not what will happen. If Italy moves back to Bla
(and he is giving me confusing explanations for his decision to leave Bla
in the first place, but that is another story), I will tell him that I
will support him to Sev, but what I will actually do is take Bulgaria from
him. This is the first step. I might coordinate with France to take
Venice as well. I can't attack Italy outright with any hope of success,
but I can trick him.
If you want any hope of success or a share of the draw in this game,
you're going to have to attack Germany at some point. He is not going to
get any weaker. The longer you wait, the less chance you have of
success. With help from France and me, your attack against Germany will
be successful.
Austria
From - Fri Dec 07 23:59:30 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
Hi, Russia is very suspicious of us, especially since we both seem to
have been sending what to him looked like coordinated messages to try to
get him to move Mos-Stp. I would actually suggest not moving Con-Bla
just yet so that Russia may grow to trust at least one of us. Once he
actually moves Mos-Stp, then perhaps you should move Con-Bla again.
What do you think?
We could try to shuffle our units around. I see that another build could
be helpful for you, but I am getting to the point that I have little left
to give to you. If I give you another supply center, I think I would
have to remove F Ion. You would have to give up Tunis, but I think that
you would be able to defend the rest of your centers. We should talk
about it further if you want.
I think a war against Germany would be very beneficial for both of us.
We could get Germany on our side very easily, I think, once France and
Russia attacked them. I might help them against Germany initially to
make sure they are successful.
More later. I need to run right now.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:25 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
Ok, I am ready to not move to Black Sea.
> We could try to shuffle our units around. I see that another build could
> be helpful for you, but I am getting to the point that I have little left
> to give to you. If I give you another supply center, I think I would
> have to remove F Ion. You would have to give up Tunis, but I think that
> you would be able to defend the rest of your centers. We should talk
> about it further if you want.
I need your fleet in Ion more than a build for me. About the shuffle, if
you think it would be helpful to have an Italian army somewhere else than
in Bulgaria just let me know. As a default I order Bul s ser-rum. How
about Con-Aeg? Do you think it is a threat to you? If so I will just
support Bul hold. My default is to support Bul.
> I think a war against Germany would be very beneficial for both of us.
> We could get Germany on our side very easily, I think, once France and
> Russia attacked them. I might help them against Germany initially to
> make sure they are successful.
I am ready to help you just let me know how. I have tried to get France to
attack Germany and I have tried to get Russia to defend against Germany by
Mos-Stp but so far I have nothing more than nice talks as a result.
I think we should try to convince France to attack Germany now. France can
talk Germany to attack Tyrolia. That means Germany is not prepared to face
the attack from France. France could then make a surprise attack against
Germany.
If that is possible then WE have to talk abour our security. We need to
keep together and rush to help Germany out of the trouble :-) When F
attacks G I could dislodge your fleet in Ionian (to fool the rest that we
are in war) and then I would continue against France and assist you
against Russia. We need to keep units in our border in a way that mutual
security is achieved. I mean, no easy ways to stab one other.
About the moves:
My defaults are
Bul S Ser-Rum
Con s Bul
Arm-Sev (or hold)
Ven is ready to help you if you want otherwise I defend against FG.
Ion S Tunis is essetial for me.
Raine
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:34 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
> I could encourage Germany to attack France, and I could refrain
> from attacking Germany while his back was turned, but I still
> maintain that there's nothing my units can do to effect France
> directly. There's no way I'd get a supply center from France,
> not a chance.
With co-operation with Germany you have a tiny chance of getting Edi. I
admit that it is only a little probability but anyway.
> I'd like to see what you do when your dependence on Keith is
> broken, I'll continue to lobby France to pull back enough to
> see that happen. Can't promise anything of course.
When I don't need fleet Ionian to support Tunis, I'd like to dislodge it
away from there. That is for sure. I thank you for your efforts to talk
France to retreat. I hope you believe in my goodwill a bit more after I
moved away from Black Sea.
> I haven't really talked to Steve about attacking France
> for the simple reason that I can't help in any meaningful
> way. I may suggest it to him if I think he's about to
> attack me, but it would be a difficult argument to win.
I see. You are in a key position now. You have a chance to move your army
in Warsaw to Gal or to Sil :-) I am ready to make peace with you (or I
alredy have done so) so that you can work against whomever you want to.
I believe Austria is ready to make peace with you too. Quite a change in
your position :-) You and Austria have battled almost entire game and now
he would most likely see you heading somewhere else than Galicia. Whatever
you do I want you to know that I want to be in peace with you.
My defaults are (these can change :-)
Arm-Sev (I'll change this to hold if you want me to)
Con S Bul
Bul S Ser-Rum
I'd like to know your thoughts 'cause you are the key to open the current
stalemate situation :-)
Raine
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:38 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Germany in 'gutsy':
Hi Steve,
How are you? I would like to discuss with you about the situation in
gutsy. There seems to be a stalemate position in west and you can do a lot
to unlock it :-)
Do you think we should talk about the possible co-operation in central
Europe?
Raine
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:44 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Italy in 'gutsy':
Hi Raine,
I would very much like to discuss unlocking the stalemate. What kind of
cooperation did you have in mind?
Both of us are in very good positions; neither one of us has a center at
risk and we both have opportunities for growth. Since you have Rod
stalemated in the Med with Adam and me pressuring Keith, you're pretty safe.
As for me, I feel pretty safe because of my northern navy and Adam's
goodwill.
I'm not sure what you and Keith have discussed, but is there any way you can
become self-sufficient against Rod's navy? If I can keep Vienna, Keith
might have to disband the Ionian fleet. That would allow you to move Nap-
Ion making you safe in both Tunis and Bulgaria, plus you could have a stab
option on Greece.
I know Keith would be upset if you actively helped me keep Vienna, but is
there any way you can let me know what his plans are? The weaker Keith is,
the more likely I am to attack Rod.
Write if you can. Thanks for keeping in touch.
- Steve
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:46 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
How are your discussions with Raine going? The reason I ask is that I
suspect Raine really wants another fleet to make his wall against Rod
complete.
With me in Vienna, I think Raine is considering the day might come when
Keith has to disband. If that day does come and Keith disbands the Ionian,
Raine would be in a very, very bad position. He would lose Tunis right off
and Naples soon thereafter.
I also want to talk a bit more about Norway. At first, I considered it a
"hostage" territory, one I could take if I needed a center. But now, I'm
starting to think about how valuable the extra fleet would be if Rod and I
ever started fighting. I don't think this is going to happen any time soon,
but I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Write when you can. Thanks.
- Steve
From - Mon Dec 10 16:00:54 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Germany in 'gutsy':
Hi Steve,
It is always a pleasure to hear your thoughts. I hope I am able to hear
them more in future.
> I would very much like to discuss unlocking the stalemate. What kind of
> cooperation did you have in mind?
My desire is to get you to tease France. I understand that you might have
some other thoughts. Well, just to let you know my priorities. I am not
able to do much as long as France keeps the stalemate in Med BUT OTOH
France is unable to do much if you decide to move against him. I believe
that the one of you (FG) who takes the 1st step has a huge advantage
against the other. About co-operation, if joint attack against France is
out of the question then I would be happy to just to talk with you. I
cannot harm Russia anymore and I cannot attack Austria as long as France
is there to take Tunis from me. So that leaves no other choice than
France.
> Both of us are in very good positions; neither one of us has a center at
> risk and we both have opportunities for growth. Since you have Rod
> stalemated in the Med with Adam and me pressuring Keith, you're pretty safe.
> As for me, I feel pretty safe because of my northern navy and Adam's
> goodwill.
Let's put it this way, I am fully aware that with bad moves or bad guesses
I am going to lose against Rod. In fact if Keith plays poorly (never seen
it :-) I am under pressure too. Maybe we shoudn't talk about stalemate in
the Med 'cause it really isn't a stalemate it is more like a position
where it takes time to break through.
> I'm not sure what you and Keith have discussed, but is there any way you can
> become self-sufficient against Rod's navy? If I can keep Vienna, Keith
> might have to disband the Ionian fleet. That would allow you to move Nap-
> Ion making you safe in both Tunis and Bulgaria, plus you could have a stab
> option on Greece.
C'mon, I am not able to attack Ionian as long as it gives me the essential
support against Rod's attack. It would be a huge risk for me to attack
Ionian and trust that Rod is not taking Tunis from me. If Rod retreats
then it is completely different situation.
> I know Keith would be upset if you actively helped me keep Vienna, but is
> there any way you can let me know what his plans are? The weaker Keith is,
> the more likely I am to attack Rod.
Keith has kept his secrets. My guess is that he plays safe and cuts the
possible support and takes Vienna back. But Keith is clever and
unpredictable you know it. He can do something very different also.
About Russia, Adam has now the possibility to move Mos-Stp to support
Norway... Any thoughts?
> Write if you can. Thanks for keeping in touch.
I would like to thank you also. You have been the silent one and like I
have said earlier I like to talk with you.
Raine
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:09 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany in 'gutsy':
> How are your discussions with Raine going? The reason I ask is that I
> suspect Raine really wants another fleet to make his wall against Rod
> complete.
Not particually well. We are at least talking which is a step
above a few moves ago. I don't really believe a word he says
anymore is the problem, he went through the Three Strikes rule
ages ago, however he tries to justify himself afterwards. For
what it's wroth, he says that he wants to get his fleet into
Ion so that he will be free to attack Austria.
> With me in Vienna, I think Raine is considering the day might come when
> Keith has to disband. If that day does come and Keith disbands the Ionian,
> Raine would be in a very, very bad position. He would lose Tunis right off
> and Naples soon thereafter.
Well, like I said, he's hoping to get his F Con into that spot
pretty soon. If France backed off just a little bit so that he could
get that done safely, He says he'd attack Austria right away. I
think that Keith is very clear on how useful F Ion is in keeping
Italy honest though, I think he'd rather disband an army than that
fleet.
> I also want to talk a bit more about Norway. At first, I considered it a
> "hostage" territory, one I could take if I needed a center. But now, I'm
> starting to think about how valuable the extra fleet would be if Rod and I
> ever started fighting. I don't think this is going to happen any time soon,
> but I'd like to hear your thoughts.
This is the other thing Raine keeps going on about, he says that you
and I should attack France between us, dispite the fact I clearly have
no units in the area. There's pretty much no way I could get a center
from an attack on France, but if you wanted the fleet to help you defend
(or even proactively strike) then I guess I could do that, the unit
is basically not doing much use where it is.
Adam............
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:13 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
I have finally been talking with Germany too. He tried to get me to
support him to keep Vienna. Also he asked about your plans. I told him the
truth, I have no idea how you are going to defend. It is also clear that I
am not going to help him against you.
Remember when I told you about the time it takes to get judge replies? I
know the reason now. Our computer center has taken some new virus
protector to scan all the mails. That is why it takes a few minutes to get
the judge reply. But there's no delay when I send something.
Raine
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:16 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> I've been honest with you. I've told you what moves I would make, and
> I've made them. Still you don't trust me. There is little more I can do.
>
> The only supply centers I can take are owned by Italy now. This is
> obvious from a quick look at the map. Perhaps you are concerned that
> Italy and I would team up to take Sevastopol from you. It is true that
> if you could be tricked, then Italy and I could take Sev. Then what. Do
> you think we could take Moscow? Warsaw?
Sev would be a good start for you, especially if Mos was in StP
and War in Sil which is what you and Raine have both suggested
I do. From a position with R A StP, R A Sil, A A Sev, A A Rum
it wouldn't be long until you were in Gal and War, especially
since Germany would turn against me. It's not so much about
losing supply centers as switching from being on one side
of a stalemate to being a tiny loner surrounded by a hostile
Germany, Italy and Austria really though.
> I am not giving Italy any suggestions for his own moves, and I'm telling
> him that I plan to attack Germany. This is the same thing I am telling
> you. I am certainly not going to tell Italy that I want to attack him.
Indeed, certainly not which is why I wondered what you WERE saying
to him.
> I don't know why you are playing the game, or what you are getting out of
> it, but when I play, I like to be in charge of my own destiny. I would
> rather try to do something if there is a possibility and risk failure
> rather than being someone's puppet and sitting around waiting for them to
> inevitably attack me.
I'm probably feeling some leakover from the other game I'm
in which is going really badly indeed, down to 2SC's as
Austria in Ser and Bud now. There I really am at the mercy
of Turkey and although he's been doing as I suggest, he
writes so little press it's hard to have any confidence
that this will last. I guess the helpless mood is probably
making me feel more helpless than I actually am in Gutsy.
> The risk you take from working with me is that I could arrange with Italy
> to backstab you and take Sevastopol. Actually, I think this is Italy's
> plan. He has just sent me a message telling me that he was trying to get
> you to move to Stp so that we could take Sev from you. However, I can
> assure you that this is not what will happen.
I think Italy is thinking along those lines. He's also keen
on me lobbying France to pull back his fleets far enough so
that he can safely replace F Ion which would free him up from being
dependent on you for defence against France.
> If Italy moves back to Bla
> (and he is giving me confusing explanations for his decision to leave Bla
> in the first place, but that is another story),
He's certainly telling me that he'll move to Aeg and then hopefully
on to Ion as soon as he can afford for it's support to be cut for
a phase. But then he's been lying to be about what he plans to
do pretty much consistantly for years now.
> If you want any hope of success or a share of the draw in this game,
> you're going to have to attack Germany at some point. He is not going to
> get any weaker. The longer you wait, the less chance you have of
> success. With help from France and me, your attack against Germany will
> be successful.
I think that I agree, and wish that France had been replying to
me press this season. Still, I also don't think that there's
much point in moving during the fall, that my best chance
would be an attack in the spring which leaves Berlin as
a possible gain in the fall. If I attacked now, I'm pretty
sure I'd loose Norway and probably not get Berlin since
I'd be knocked out of it next fall, not to mention that
ideally I need for Munich to be empty. Next spring looks
better, hopefully France will start replying to my press
and we can sort something out.
Adam..........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:25 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
No reply from judge so resending, might get this twice:
Hummm, did you even get my last press to you talking about
Keith and maybe attacking Germany? I decided that I would
confront Keith with my fears that he and Raine were both
telling me the same thing, but surely not telling each other that
same thing (that they want to attack each other).
Keith says they have had little contact except for to confirm
their moves each season. He says he's not happy with F Bla moving
to Con, nor with an army in Bul.
I think I believe him, I suspect that next Spring, if we moved
against Italy and backed off from Italy a little, that Keith
and Raine actually would stab each other.
If you agree, we have two choices, tell Germany this and pretend
to attack for a season before pulling back and surprising AI,
or genuinely try to knock G out while AI knock one of their
set out leaving FR and either A or I for a three way, or solo
rush or whatever.
Any preferences?
Adam..........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:21 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
No reply from judge so resending, might get this twice:
> Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl keeps the unit alive. It either
> makes it to Tyl or survives in Vie.
Looks fine to me, three on Vie against three on Tyr.
> > Looks to me like a straight choice between
> > having A Pie in Tyr or having A Vie in Tyr.
> I prefer the latter, because I think Pie-Tyr gives AI
> better opportunity to achieve the stalemate line (assuming
> that they think of it and trust each other enough).
The press I'm getting from them both is starting to look like
they both want to attack each other now, they're just looking
for the chance to do so. Certainly I wouldn't be happy to
be in quite the position they are in, being forced to trust
each other with open SC's just a move away.
I'll stick with Ukr S War - Gal and Mos S Sev, we'll have to
hope it all falls into place pretty soon.
Adam...............
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:27 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
Hummm, did you even get my last press to you talking about
Keith and maybe attacking Germany? I decided that I would
confront Keith with my fears that he and Raine were both
telling me the same thing, but surely not telling each other that
same thing (that they want to attack each other).
Keith says they have had little contact except for to confirm
their moves each season. He says he's not happy with F Bla moving
to Con, nor with an army in Bul.
I think I believe him, I suspect that next Spring, if we moved
against Italy and backed off from Italy a little, that Keith
and Raine actually would stab each other.
If you agree, we have two choices, tell Germany this and pretend
to attack for a season before pulling back and surprising AI,
or genuinely try to knock G out while AI knock one of their
set out leaving FR and either A or I for a three way, or solo
rush or whatever.
Any preferences?
Adam..........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:30 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Germany and France in 'gutsy':
> Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl keeps the unit alive. It either
> makes it to Tyl or survives in Vie.
Looks fine to me, three on Vie against three on Tyr.
> > Looks to me like a straight choice between
> > having A Pie in Tyr or having A Vie in Tyr.
> I prefer the latter, because I think Pie-Tyr gives AI
> better opportunity to achieve the stalemate line (assuming
> that they think of it and trust each other enough).
The press I'm getting from them both is starting to look like
they both want to attack each other now, they're just looking
for the chance to do so. Certainly I wouldn't be happy to
be in quite the position they are in, being forced to trust
each other with open SC's just a move away.
I'll stick with Ukr S War - Gal and Mos S Sev, we'll have to
hope it all falls into place pretty soon.
Adam...............
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:35 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> Hummm, did you even get my last press to you talking about
> Keith and maybe attacking Germany?
Yes. I think you need to spend less time at the pub. ;-)
> I decided that I would
> confront Keith with my fears that he and Raine were both
> telling me the same thing, but surely not telling each other that
> same thing (that they want to attack each other).
This is indeed suspicious. They both say good things, but it seems too well-coordinated
- like they're just telling us what we want to hear.
> I think I believe him, I suspect that next Spring, if we moved
> against Germany and backed off from Italy a little, that Keith
> and Raine actually would stab each other.
I would be willing to shift against G next Spring as long as you commit to do the same.
However, it's risky for you, because if you move sufficient force against G to make a
difference then you will be vulnerable to Austria. If you trust him enough to do that
then I will join you against G.
> If you agree, we have two choices, tell Germany this and pretend
> to attack for a season before pulling back and surprising AI,
I don't think we need to tell Germany. We can genuinely attack him, then if necessary
call it off and go after AI instead - though if A/I *don't* turn on each other then
they will have time to set up a stalemate line, and continuing against G will be our
only option. Are we willing to take the risk of reducing ourselves to a single option?
> Both of them convince me with every press
> they send so it might just be Steve's low press rate lately....
I'll ask him to be a little more talkative, so we can hear the best arguments from both
sides and make a reasoned decision.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:32 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
Adam is again disconcerted because he receives more press from AI than from you.
(But you didn't hear it from me.) You need to be more talkative to bolster his
confidence.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:39 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia and
Germany in 'gutsy':
Gentlemen,
> > Mun/Boh S Vie-Tyl keeps the unit alive. It either
> > makes it to Tyl or survives in Vie.
>
> Looks fine to me, three on Vie against three on Tyr.
Yeah, I think that's the best move.
> I'll stick with Ukr S War - Gal and Mos S Sev
Sounds good.
> we'll have to hope it all falls into place pretty soon.
I think we have an advantage in that we're playing aggressively while they're just
defending, but we do need some good luck here and there.
I'll hit Tus and see what happens.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:41 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Master in 'gutsy':
Hi Roger,
There seems to be some problem with the judge; some players are not
receiving press and/or results. Would you mind a day or two extension? I'm
not having any problems (that I've noticed), but I'm concerned that not all
my press is getting delivered properly.
Thanks.
- Steve
From - Mon Dec 10 16:01:56 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> Yes. I think you need to spend less time at the pub. ;-)
Heh, now you sound like my mother.
> This is indeed suspicious. They both say good things, but it
> seems too well-coordinated - like they're just telling us what
> we want to hear.
Keith said he was surprised to hear that Italy also wanted Mos-StP
and MAO-ENG. I guess that there is some point in both of those
moves from the independent perspectives of A and I.
> I would be willing to shift against G next Spring as long as
> you commit to do the same. However, it's risky for you, because
> if you move sufficient force against G to make a difference then
> you will be vulnerable to Austria.
Keith keeps assuring me that all I have to do is look at the map
to see that can't happen. Sev is vunerable to A/I both attacking
together if I move against Germany, but he claims that even AI
together wouldn't be able to get War, or Mos. Of course, loosing
Norway and Sev leaves me with just three centers. Four if I manage
to take Berlin, which may be possible if Mun were to move south
either now or in the spring.
> If you trust him enough to
> do that then I will join you against G.
Trust Keith? Not really. Thing is that Steve isn't going to just
sit around for ever either - he's sent a tentative water testing
note to me about maybe using F Nwy against you and Keith has
forwarded some press from G saying that he agrees to turn on
Russia when Rum or Tunis fall.
It was always going to be a timing thing, Italy not joining in
on Austria and insisting on finishing off Eric was the real pain.
If he'd made that as clear BEFORE I attacked Keith as it was
afterwards I'd have never done it. Germany and I will have to
fight eventually, better that it's me making the first move than
him.
> I don't think we need to tell Germany. We can genuinely attack
> him, then if necessary call it off and go after AI instead - though
> if A/I *don't* turn on each other then they will have time to set
> up a stalemate line, and continuing against G will be our only option.
> Are we willing to take the risk of reducing ourselves to a single option?
Depends on how convinced we are by Keith's arguments basically. I
say Keith rather than Keith and Raine because Raine has lied to me
so often now I pretty much discount everything he says. Keith
says that the best he could hope to get attacking Russia would
be Sev. War and Mos are too far from his units. He says that
he'd like to take Bul - and certainly Bul does threaten him.
He say's he'd also like to negotiate with you about Venice
(has he done any of that at all?). That's two centers compared
to just one in Sev. Plus he's having to trust Raine a lot more
than he's comfortable with, especially with F Bla moving to
Con - clearly heading up to Ion.
He also say's he's worried that Italy will do the attacking first.
Certainly Raine could take Gre at the drop of a hat which may be
enough to get away with losing Tunis if he can still make the
line against you hold a little further back. That would free him
to do what he insists to me he wants to do and help me into Rum,
take Ser and Tri, let me pick up Bud and Vie.
Given that Keith tells me that he and Italy have no plan
together at all, what exactly do we think that plan is? Take
Sev or just fall back into that stalemate line? Neither of
them wants or expects a five or even four way draw so would
that really help things?
I don't know, the fact I'm a puppet surviving at two centers
on the mercy of Turkey in another game right now keeps making
me feel helpless and it's reflecting on my confidence in this
game too I think.
> I'll ask him to be a little more talkative, so we can hear
> the best arguments from both sides and make a reasoned decision.
Never hurts to get more press. Except you have to reply to it
usually and I've been getting very slack at that lately.
Adam...........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:01 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> I need your fleet in Ion more than a build for me. About the shuffle, if
> you think it would be helpful to have an Italian army somewhere else than
> in Bulgaria just let me know. As a default I order Bul s ser-rum. How
> about Con-Aeg? Do you think it is a threat to you? If so I will just
> support Bul hold. My default is to support Bul.
I don't see Con-Aeg as a threat. If you want to evnentually move it to
the Ionian, you'll need to move it. This move would also put Russia at
ease. On the other hand, while France is in place, there's no
possibility to safely replace my fleet in the Ionian. You could try it
by surprise some turn. It doesn't matter to me what you do with Con
right now.
> I am ready to help you just let me know how. I have tried to get France to
> attack Germany and I have tried to get Russia to defend against Germany by
> Mos-Stp but so far I have nothing more than nice talks as a result.
> I think we should try to convince France to attack Germany now. France can
> talk Germany to attack Tyrolia. That means Germany is not prepared to face
> the attack from France. France could then make a surprise attack against
> Germany.
That sounds like a good idea. Russia needs to be on board against
Germany too. Neither Russia nor France wants to attack Germany without
help from the other.
> If that is possible then WE have to talk abour our security. We need to
> keep together and rush to help Germany out of the trouble :-) When F
> attacks G I could dislodge your fleet in Ionian (to fool the rest that we
> are in war) and then I would continue against France and assist you
> against Russia. We need to keep units in our border in a way that mutual
> security is achieved. I mean, no easy ways to stab one other.
That sounds good to me. Putting a fleet in Bul/ec would go a long way.
Then I could remove the army in Serbia and keep Greece clear.
> About the moves:
> My defaults are
> Bul S Ser-Rum
> Con s Bul
> Arm-Sev (or hold)
> Ven is ready to help you if you want otherwise I defend against FG.
They have overwhelming force against Tyrolia, so I don't think your A Ven
will help. You could order Ven-Pie if that also would fit with your own
defensive plans, but this is not essential by any means.
> Ion S Tunis is essetial for me.
Okay, I've ordered this.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:08 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> Of course, loosing
> Norway and Sev leaves me with just three centers.
Yeah, you're in good shape if you can keep your units - and there's the rub.
> Germany and I will have to
> fight eventually, better that it's me making the first move than
> him.
You're probably right about that.
> He say's he'd also like to negotiate with you about Venice
> (has he done any of that at all?).
He always insists that I must move to Bur and Eng before he will consider any sort
of cooperation.
> Given that Keith tells me that he and Italy have no plan
> together at all, what exactly do we think that plan is?
It's obvious - their plan is to break up FGR. That's clearly the best thing for them.
The only question is: What's best for *us*??
> I don't know, the fact I'm a puppet surviving at two centers
> on the mercy of Turkey in another game right now keeps making
> me feel helpless and it's reflecting on my confidence in this
> game too I think.
That's understandable, but it's best to look at each game objectively and independently.
> Never hurts to get more press. Except you have to reply to it
> usually and I've been getting very slack at that lately.
I've been lazy too lately. I guess we'll just have to work on correcting that.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:12 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Sev would be a good start for you, especially if Mos was in StP
> and War in Sil which is what you and Raine have both suggested
> I do. From a position with R A StP, R A Sil, A A Sev, A A Rum
> it wouldn't be long until you were in Gal and War, especially
> since Germany would turn against me. It's not so much about
> losing supply centers as switching from being on one side
> of a stalemate to being a tiny loner surrounded by a hostile
> Germany, Italy and Austria really though.
If you attack Germany, it will be with support from both France and me.
Neither France nor I wants Germany to take your supply centers, and you
should see that Germany is the only one who poses any threat to take your
centers.
> I'm probably feeling some leakover from the other game I'm
> in which is going really badly indeed, down to 2SC's as
> Austria in Ser and Bud now. There I really am at the mercy
> of Turkey and although he's been doing as I suggest, he
> writes so little press it's hard to have any confidence
> that this will last. I guess the helpless mood is probably
> making me feel more helpless than I actually am in Gutsy.
You're only helpless if you make yourself helpless. Sitting and doing
nothing makes you helpless. You need to make things happen rather than
to wait for things to happen to you.
> I think Italy is thinking along those lines. He's also keen
> on me lobbying France to pull back his fleets far enough so
> that he can safely replace F Ion which would free him up from being
> dependent on you for defence against France.
I have talked to Italy and convinced him not to move Con-Bla. I don't
know if he will move Con-Aeg or not.
> He's certainly telling me that he'll move to Aeg and then hopefully
> on to Ion as soon as he can afford for it's support to be cut for
> a phase. But then he's been lying to be about what he plans to
> do pretty much consistantly for years now.
Maybe he will be honest this time. He sees now that the only thing he
will gain from Russia is to help get France off his back. You are the
key to getting France to attack Germany. France is not going to pull
back from Italy without attacking Germany.
> I think that I agree, and wish that France had been replying to
> me press this season. Still, I also don't think that there's
> much point in moving during the fall, that my best chance
> would be an attack in the spring which leaves Berlin as
> a possible gain in the fall. If I attacked now, I'm pretty
> sure I'd loose Norway and probably not get Berlin since
> I'd be knocked out of it next fall, not to mention that
> ideally I need for Munich to be empty. Next spring looks
> better, hopefully France will start replying to my press
> and we can sort something out.
I will talk to France. Perhaps he is away. Germany may take Tyrolia
with Munich, which would make it advantageous for you to move War-Sil
this turn. You can save Norway next year by moving Mos-Stp and Nwy-Nth
this year. Perhaps you underestimate how much damage you can do to
Germany by moving Nwy-Nth. I think you should at least make that move,
even if you are not comfortable with the others. If Germany wants to
take Norway, he will take it by force, so you don't lose anything by
moving Nwy-Nth but have a lot to gain.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:15 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
Russia is waiting to hear from you. From what I can tell, he is more
seriously considering attacking Germany, but he needs assurances from you.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:24 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> If you attack Germany, it will be with support from both France and me.
> Neither France nor I wants Germany to take your supply centers, and you
> should see that Germany is the only one who poses any threat to take your
> centers.
Apart from Sev, yeah.
> Maybe he will be honest this time. He sees now that the only thing he
> will gain from Russia is to help get France off his back. You are the
> key to getting France to attack Germany. France is not going to pull
> back from Italy without attacking Germany.
I think we might be able to sort out the move by next spring,
but France has only just started replying to my press and
there's about eight hours till deadline? He's thinking
very similarily to me, but I doubt we could convince him
to move in the next few hours.
> I will talk to France. Perhaps he is away.
Just a long lazy weekend I think, he's back now anyway.
> Germany may take Tyrolia
> with Munich, which would make it advantageous for you to move War-Sil
> this turn.
Probably take it with Ven from what he's been saying, Munich & Boh
supporting. He's convinced that Tyr is the cruitial point in
some line he thinks your trying to build and that you may
even support Tyr so hard you're prepared to lose Venice.
If you take Venice, you'll lose Tyr to that unit. At least
that will stop Germany being able to rebuild though and
keep his units roughly where they are.
> You can save Norway next year by moving Mos-Stp and Nwy-Nth
> this year. Perhaps you underestimate how much damage you can do to
> Germany by moving Nwy-Nth.
Possibly, I hadn't looked at it very hard before now. Threatening
Bel/Hol/Den is nice, but he has the units to cover that fairly
quickly. There's a center, at least short term there. That and
Ber would be very nice indeed. As you say though, there's no
way it would work without France on board and we're still
talking, and all the talk we've done has been based on the
idea of spring moves into Eng/StP/Sil then fall moves onto
his supply centers.
> I think you should at least make that move,
> even if you are not comfortable with the others. If Germany wants to
> take Norway, he will take it by force, so you don't lose anything by
> moving Nwy-Nth but have a lot to gain.
I lose the complete confidence that I appear to have from
him at the moment, I will almost certainly know what Germany
intends to move next spring if I wait until then, if I
were to move now he'd at the very least be suspicious
come next year.
Adam........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:28 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
> Russia is waiting to hear from you.
I replied to him this morning.
> he is more seriously considering attacking Germany, but he needs assurances from you.
What he needs is faith that you'll attack Italy instead of Russia. Sure, you and
Raine keep *talking* about attacking each other if we move on Germany, but I just
don't buy it.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:33 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
> What he needs is faith that you'll attack Italy instead of Russia.
> Sure, you and Raine keep *talking* about attacking each other if we move
> on Germany, but I just don't buy it.
Who else do you think I'm going to attack? I am surrounded by Italian
centers. In order to make any effective attack against Russia or Germany
with the few units I have, I would have to leave my home centers wide
open. Conflict between Italy and I is inevitable.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:39 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Apart from Sev, yeah.
Well you need to leave at least two units there to protect it. I think
Italy would be unwilling to move from Armenia, but I doubt he'll move
back to the Black Sea.
> I think we might be able to sort out the move by next spring,
> but France has only just started replying to my press and
> there's about eight hours till deadline? He's thinking
> very similarily to me, but I doubt we could convince him
> to move in the next few hours.
Don't worry, the deadline isn't until tomorrow.
> Probably take it with Ven from what he's been saying, Munich & Boh
> supporting. He's convinced that Tyr is the cruitial point in
> some line he thinks your trying to build and that you may
> even support Tyr so hard you're prepared to lose Venice.
> If you take Venice, you'll lose Tyr to that unit. At least
> that will stop Germany being able to rebuild though and
> keep his units roughly where they are.
Don't worry, I'm not going to let Germany keep Vienna.
> Possibly, I hadn't looked at it very hard before now. Threatening
> Bel/Hol/Den is nice, but he has the units to cover that fairly
> quickly. There's a center, at least short term there. That and
> Ber would be very nice indeed. As you say though, there's no
> way it would work without France on board and we're still
> talking, and all the talk we've done has been based on the
> idea of spring moves into Eng/StP/Sil then fall moves onto
> his supply centers.
It is true that Germany can cover his holdings if you entered Nth, but
the North Sea is such a potent place to be, he'll need to use the
majority of his units just to protect against your one unit there. This
is an enormous advantage. If you and France had units in Eng, Sil, Bur
and Nth, you could easily defeat Germany, even though Germany would have
twice as many units as you two. And this doesn't even consider the
pressure I can bring to bear against Munich with armies in Tyr and Boh.
Now, this attack against Germany would also be coordinated with an attack
against Italy. You can see that I am surrounded by Italian supply
centers. And, with the small number of units I have, I would have to
leave my home centers wide open in order to mount any sort of effective
attack against you. No, conflict between Italy and me is inevitable.
> I lose the complete confidence that I appear to have from
> him at the moment, I will almost certainly know what Germany
> intends to move next spring if I wait until then, if I
> were to move now he'd at the very least be suspicious
> come next year.
Why do you care what Germany does next Spring? He's not doing anything
to help you at the moment. And he's not going to tell you if he's
planning to attack you. Best to use the trust that Germany has in you
now against him while you still have that trust. Getting a fleet into
Nth is the most important thing you can do, and that avenue will be
closed to you once Germany feels in the least threatened by you or
France. Being cautious too long will only bring wasted opportunities.
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:42 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> Don't worry, the deadline isn't until tomorrow.
11 hours 36 minutes and counting I make it. I'll be in
bed for most of those, starting in about four hours time.
> Don't worry, I'm not going to let Germany keep Vienna.
I didn't think you would, but you seemed to think that
Munich might be in Tyr. It won't be, the Vie army will
be there.
> Why do you care what Germany does next Spring?
Knowing what his moves are going to be can only help,
having the chance to edit and suggest new moves helps
a lot too. Why do you think the situation will be so
different next spring to it is now, or to what it
was last spring or fall when Germany didn't stab me?
The only real difference I can see is that the adjustments
phase comes after this movement phase, rather than after
two of them.
Anyway, like I said, the main problem isn't so much that
the timing is better, it doens't make all that much
difference either way when it takes so long to get to
a new center anyway. The main problem is that I'd only
have about four hours to convince France before I fall
asleep this evening. I think France would feel rushed
at that pace which wouldn't lead to conducive thinking.
I'm still relying on him to talk me out of this if I'm
being the fool I suspect I may be being.
> He's not doing anything
> to help you at the moment. And he's not going to tell you if he's
> planning to attack you. Best to use the trust that Germany has in you
> now against him while you still have that trust.
I don't see why you assume I won't have it next spring? Unless
I move to Nth obviously.
Adam............
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:47 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> > Germany and I will have to
> > fight eventually, better that it's me making the first move than
> > him.
>
> You're probably right about that.
Cor, tell Keith that you're thinking about maybe doing as
he suggests in the spring and he starts jumping up and down
excitedly and asking Why Not Do It Now? We've only got
four hours till I hit the sack and wake up after deadline
so it'd feel rushed to me but I'll be in front of the
computer, on and off at least, for that time if you think
moving in the Fall here would do us any advantage.
> He always insists that I must move to Bur and Eng before
> he will consider any sort of cooperation.
That fits, like I said he was just saying that he would
negotiate with you. I imagine he'd want support into Ven
since you'd get just about all of the rest of Italy.
> It's obvious - their plan is to break up FGR. That's clearly
> the best thing for them. The only question is: What's best for *us*??
That depends on what they do AFTER they break up FGR, which
is the part of the plan I was curious about. Keith insists
that there is no joint AI plan at least, and that his is
to attack Italy.
> That's understandable, but it's best to look at each
> game objectively and independently.
Of course, but easier to say things like "Cheer up" than
it is to do them sometimes. "Snap out of it!" that's my
favourite. Lordy.
Adam.........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:50 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> > Don't worry, the deadline isn't until tomorrow.
>
> 11 hours 36 minutes and counting I make it. I'll be in
> bed for most of those, starting in about four hours time.
Is that right? Oh, I'm always confused by the time difference.
> > Why do you care what Germany does next Spring?
>
> Knowing what his moves are going to be can only help,
> having the chance to edit and suggest new moves helps
> a lot too. Why do you think the situation will be so
> different next spring to it is now, or to what it
> was last spring or fall when Germany didn't stab me?
> The only real difference I can see is that the adjustments
> phase comes after this movement phase, rather than after
> two of them.
I think time is of the essence. I don't know what will need to transpire
before Germany feels confident enough that he can attack you. But, I can
imagine that once he is in Tyrolia, he will be feeling much better.
Being in Tyrolia means that Italy will lose Venice soon, and if Italy
loses Venice, then my defense line becomes vulnerable.
In order to be successful against Germany, you need to make a move before
he does, and the time window for this to happen is narrowing quickly.
> Anyway, like I said, the main problem isn't so much that
> the timing is better, it doens't make all that much
> difference either way when it takes so long to get to
> a new center anyway. The main problem is that I'd only
> have about four hours to convince France before I fall
> asleep this evening. I think France would feel rushed
> at that pace which wouldn't lead to conducive thinking.
> I'm still relying on him to talk me out of this if I'm
> being the fool I suspect I may be being.
Okay. Attacking Germany without French help would indeed be foolish.
But the French help may never come unless you act first. If Germany
moves against you, he will need to shift his forces East slightly, and
France probably won't attack until you are almost gone. On the other
hand, your moving Nwy-Nth immediately gives France the advantage he
needs. France wants to be able to take Belgium, and he can't do this ifi
Germany controls the North Sea.
> I don't see why you assume I won't have it next spring? Unless
> I move to Nth obviously.
You probably will have it still. I don't know. It just seems to me that
you are becoming less and less useful to Germany. What is his threshold?
Austria
From - Mon Dec 10 16:02:57 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> Is that right? Oh, I'm always confused by the time difference.
10 hours exactly now according to floc.net which makes
the time difference easy since it works it all out for you.
Guess you use these things more if you're used to being
hours away from the machine you're playing on like us
Europeans are.
> I think time is of the essence. I don't know what will need to transpire
> before Germany feels confident enough that he can attack you. But, I can
> imagine that once he is in Tyrolia, he will be feeling much better.
> Being in Tyrolia means that Italy will lose Venice soon, and if Italy
> loses Venice, then my defense line becomes vulnerable.
Was he not already in Tyrolia earlier? My memory is hazy but
we've been fighting down there for a while now so that's
my excuse. His units will all be fairly Westerly at that
point too, nothing bordering War at all so no easy stab
for him either, so the only danger would be evicting Nwy
and Den - Nth at the same time. I think he'd want to clear
that with France first since France covers all of England
which /probably/ means I'd get warning from Rod too.
> Okay. Attacking Germany without French help would indeed be foolish.
> But the French help may never come unless you act first.
He's already said that if I move against Germany in the spring
then he'll join that attack, it's moving the deadline that
I'd have to convince him of and he's not replying as quickly
as you, I doubt it'll be possible.
> You probably will have it still. I don't know. It just seems to me that
> you are becoming less and less useful to Germany. What is his threshold?
Didn't he say in press to you that Rum/Sev or Pie/Ven? I think
he's waiting for a center to fall to be honest, but of course
he hasn't said that to ME.
Adam........
From - Mon Dec 10 16:27:04 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> Cor, tell Keith that you're thinking about maybe doing as
> he suggests in the spring and he starts jumping up and down
> excitedly and asking Why Not Do It Now?
I think he tries a bit too hard to be persuasive. It makes me less inclined to
humour him.
> Keith insists
> that there is no joint AI plan at least, and that his is
> to attack Italy.
I've decided to take a hard line with him, because every turn he tells Germany I'm
about to stab him (and vice versa), and I'd rather not give him any ammunition. So
I tell Keith I just don't believe him when he says A/I will turn on each other.
(And it's true that I don't really trust him.)
So I guess that makes me the "bad cop". ;-)
> That fits, like I said he was just saying that he would
> negotiate with you.
He doesn't really negotiate. He just tells me to attack Germany.
> ... if you think
> moving in the Fall here would do us any advantage.
I can't properly move against G without letting the pressure off Italy, meaning
that I'd have to give up my attack on Tus. OTOH, what would I do with Tus if I
got it? I should plan to move Gas-Mar to really hit Italy, but that leaves me
vulnerable to Germany. But if I *can* trust G then having him in Tyr with French
armies in Tus and Mar is a good position.
It looks like I can't make progress in either direction without putting all my eggs
in one basket.
I think the only advantage of moving now would be that you could do War-Sil and
Ukr-War or Mos-War, then Sil-Ber, War-Pru in Spring gives you a supported attack
on Ber next Fall. Germany could thwart you by moving a fleet into Bal, but then
he can't both dislodge Nwy and move to Nth in the same turn.
I'm feeling rather ambivalent right now. What's your inclination?
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 17:02:57 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> I've decided to take a hard line with him, because every
> turn he tells Germany I'm about to stab him (and vice versa),
> and I'd rather not give him any ammunition. So I tell Keith
> I just don't believe him when he says A/I will turn on each
> other. (And it's true that I don't really trust him.)
At least if he's been saying it every turn then he's
building up Germany's resistance to believing it, but
you're right, little amuntion is probably a good plan.
> So I guess that makes me the "bad cop". ;-)
And I end up being the sappy one again.
> He doesn't really negotiate. He just tells me to attack Germany.
Certainly true at the moment, but once that's done he'd
presumably have to do things like share out Italian
centers and ask for support into Ven which you can
demand some concession for. GOING to negotiate doesn't
mean he already is.
> I should plan to move Gas-Mar to really hit Italy, but that
> leaves me vulnerable to Germany.
It does? If you turn around on Germany wouldn't you move to
Bur anyway, you can get there as easily from Mar as from
Gas.
> But if I *can* trust G then having him in Tyr with French
> armies in Tus and Mar is a good position.
I think we can probably trust him until AI loose a
center in a way that looks permament. After that YOU
probably still can trust him, it's me he'll be after.
> I think the only advantage of moving now would be that you
> could do War-Sil and Ukr-War or Mos-War, then Sil-Ber,
> War-Pru in Spring gives you a supported attack on Ber next Fall.
I can move Gal - Sil and Ukr to War in the fall, if we can
talk Germany into moving Munich south in the spring
I won't need the support. Also it gives Germany one less
move to react to it. This is why I immediately thought of
Spring for the move to start with and was surprised when
Austria wasn't satisfied with that.
> Germany could thwart you by moving a fleet into Bal, but
> then he can't both dislodge Nwy and move to Nth in the same turn.
Nwy - Nth will be an important move I think. The only
problem with delaying I can think of is that Germany
could take Norway and Nth this fall, but then if he
does that I wouldn't get into Nth anyway. He's unlikely
to do it in the spring and let F Nwy have an extra
phase of freedom after it's dislodged. I can't see
that we lose anything by waiting, or by going along
with the exact moves we had planned. Indeed, it's
only likely to make Germany feel more secure I think.
To be fair, in the last message or two Keith has also
admitted that I'm probably right about that.
> I'm feeling rather ambivalent right now. What's your inclination?
I think that it might be worth trying in the spring. Maybe
even probably worth trying in the spring. This fall we
should stick with Germany though, Gal and Mar are no worse
for the attack than
Adam.........
From - Mon Dec 10 17:03:00 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
I can understand your frustration and impatience. You are vulnerable to G, and
though FGR have a shot at making progress against AI if we stick together, it might
not benefit you any.
OTOH, I have prospects against Italy, though it requires a little luck and continued
cooperation from G. Throwing everything against Italy is a good option for me, expect
that it then leaves me vulnerable.
If you are convinced that you'd be better off being vulnerable to AI than to G, you
could do War-Sil, Ukr-War, Mos-StP, Nwy-Nth. If Germany doesn't cover Sil or move on
Nwy this turn then you're in good shape - unless AI plan Arm S Rum-Sev for the Spring.
If you tell me that you *will* take the risk and make this move this turn, then I'll
do MAO-Eng, NAf-MAO, Gas-Bur, Pie-Mar. The downside is that this would allow AI to do
*anything* they want, and I'm not convinced that they'll attack each other rather than
form AGI.
If you're hesitant, I think it's safer to stay the course and hope for success against AI.
Now that the deadline has been extended, let's wait to hear something from Steve before
we make up our minds.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 17:03:03 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> > I should plan to move Gas-Mar to really hit Italy, but that
> > leaves me vulnerable to Germany.
>
> It does? If you turn around on Germany wouldn't you move to
> Bur anyway, you can get there as easily from Mar as from
> Gas.
Yes, but if Pie-Tus succeeds then Mar might be pinned by an Italian army in Pie and/or
I won't be able to pull A Tus back fast enough to cover Bur while the other army attacks
Bel. The vulnerability is if we decide our prospects against AI have improved so I
don't go to Bur after all - a stab from Germany would then leave Par en prise. Also,
I'm confident that a move to Bur would succeed now, but I'm not entirely sure about
the Spring.
> I can't see
> that we lose anything by waiting, or by going along
> with the exact moves we had planned. Indeed, it's
> only likely to make Germany feel more secure I think.
Ten minutes ago I would've agreed with you, but now I'm having second thoughts. I fear
that I may have to make my decision this turn and fully commit against either Italy or
Germany. If I attack Italy then I need some luck and some faith in G. If I attack G
then I need some luck (and your assistance) and some faith that AI will dissolve.
It's a gamble either way.
OTOH, maybe I'm just paranoid. I'm glad we have some more time to think about it.
Rod
From - Mon Dec 10 17:03:05 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> If you tell me that you *will* take the risk and make this
> move this turn, then I'll do MAO-Eng, NAf-MAO, Gas-Bur, Pie-Mar.
> The downside is that this would allow AI to do *anything* they
> want, and I'm not convinced that they'll attack each other rather
> than form AGI.
Well I'm happy to wait until the spring frankly, I only
even mentioned trying it this year so I could tell Austria
that I had to shut him up for a while. Is there something
you're planning on doing this fall that would make it
harder to turn on Germany in the spring rather than now?
Gas - Mar will still get you straight into Bur, MAO
and Naf aren't moving so far as I know, Pie stand only
a chance of being in Tus rather than standing still
and the difference between Tus-Pie and Pie-Mar should
you go up against Germany looks minimal to me.
> If you're hesitant, I think it's safer to stay the course
> and hope for success against AI.
I've seen press apparently from Germany to Austria which
indicates he'll probably turn on me when one of
'Tyr/Vie/Ven' or 'Sev/Rum' are resolved to his satisfaction.
This could be lies sent to justify not stabbing me
when Keith suggested it, but it also makes some sense.
He doesn't need to destroy Austria before he comes
after me.
I like the option of moving against Germany in the spring,
but if you require that we move now or never (well, much
later) then I'm less sure either way.
> Now that the deadline has been extended, let's wait
> to hear something from Steve before we make up our minds.
Yeah, I'll set wait. I suspect that the deadline has been
extended purely becasue nobody talked enough last week
and discussion has gotten pretty fierce lately, especially
since I used deadline being close as another exucse to Austria
for why I couldn't move just yet but there's no reason not
to take advantage.
Adam.............
From - Mon Dec 10 18:55:52 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Was he not already in Tyrolia earlier? My memory is hazy but
> we've been fighting down there for a while now so that's
> my excuse. His units will all be fairly Westerly at that
> point too, nothing bordering War at all so no easy stab
> for him either, so the only danger would be evicting Nwy
> and Den - Nth at the same time. I think he'd want to clear
> that with France first since France covers all of England
> which /probably/ means I'd get warning from Rod too.
Germany occupied Tyrolia earlier, but France was not in Piedmont at the
same time, and I was able to kick him out. He's just now been able to
get back into place.
France is not threatened by Germany's being in Nth, at least not too
much. If Germany dislodges you from Nwy, you can bet that he will also
move Den-Nth. It is too dangerous to allow you into Nth, which is why
I've been surprised that he hasn't bounced himself from Nth to keep you out.
> > You probably will have it still. I don't know. It just seems to me that
> > you are becoming less and less useful to Germany. What is his threshold?
>
> Didn't he say in press to you that Rum/Sev or Pie/Ven? I think
> he's waiting for a center to fall to be honest, but of course
> he hasn't said that to ME.
Well once Germany enters Tyrolia, then Venice will fall into
French/German hands. Probably France will dislodge Tuscany first, and
then they can attack Venice. Tys becomes vulnerable too if France gets
his fleets into position.
Once they have Venice, then they can move to Tri to cut my support, and
Germany can take Vienna. What has he offered you, and when?
Austria
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:17 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
> I don't see Con-Aeg as a threat. If you want to evnentually move it to
> the Ionian, you'll need to move it. This move would also put Russia at
> ease. On the other hand, while France is in place, there's no
> possibility to safely replace my fleet in the Ionian. You could try it
> by surprise some turn. It doesn't matter to me what you do with Con
> right now.
Yes, as long as France does not retreat there it is a risk to try to
change Italian fleet to Ionian. I think Russia should be able to breath
now that I am not in Black Sea. So, I think that is no reason to continue.
> > Ion S Tunis is essetial for me.
>
> Okay, I've ordered this.
Thank you.
I think I won't dare to move Ven-Pie. Maybe I'll flip a coin.
Raine
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:18 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> Yes, but if Pie-Tus succeeds
>From what Keith has said, though I never mentioned the province
at all and he only did so in passing, Tus won't succeed this
fall anyway. He was worried about it falling in the spring,
for what it's worth.
> then Mar might be pinned by an Italian army in Pie and/or
> I won't be able to pull A Tus back fast enough to cover Bur
> while the other army attacks Bel.
You're probably right though, it would be a risk if it suceeded
and we'd need a damn good excuse, or outright attack, to change
the order at this time.
> The vulnerability is if we decide our prospects against AI have improved
> so I don't go to Bur after all - a stab from Germany would then leave
> Par en prise. Also, I'm confident that a move to Bur would succeed
> now, but I'm not entirely sure about the Spring.
You think Germany will bounce a move to Bur in the spring?
If that's a genuine fear then sending all your units after
Raine and leaving a deliberate hole for him to attack through
sounds kinda odd thing to do.
> Ten minutes ago I would've agreed with you, but now I'm having
> second thoughts. I fear that I may have to make my decision this
> turn and fully commit against either Italy or Germany. If I attack
> Italy then I need some luck and some faith in G. If I attack G
> then I need some luck (and your assistance) and some faith that
> AI will dissolve. It's a gamble either way.
For what ever it's worth, you have my assistance, so it's a
straight choice between faith that G will keep on A even after
he's taken the only center he's likely to get there in Vie,
or faith that two countries who are tied together with
stabbable centers scattered all around will resist the
temptation to take a one or two center grab from the other.
I didn't mean to phrase that in such a biased way, but
I'm going to leave it since it came out that way.
> OTOH, maybe I'm just paranoid. I'm glad we have some more
> time to think about it.
Yeah, but not much more time again now, and Steve's still really
quiet (though I do believe that's just to do with real life
getting in the way rather than him hiding anything from us).
So we're on a gamble, I think if we have to decide now
between siding with G or AI then my own interestes would be
better served in the longer term going with AI. Either
they'll take Sev from me, in which case they'd have done
so when Germany attacks later, or they won't. Mos and War
are more likely to end up German than Austrian either way.
If I were Italy I'd have attacked Austria a long time ago,
if I were Austria I'd probably attack Italy rather than Russia
once R and G were fighting if only because it gives me
more centers to aim for.
You wanna toss a coin, or shall I? If we're changing our
moves to attack G then we need to figure out what they are
pretty quick. Nwy - Nth, War - Sil, Ukr/Mos - War and
the other support Sev for me I suppose.
Mao - Eng, Gas - Bur for you, with some backup from those
other fleets but do be careful that you don't let
Italy get too far West.
Adam.........
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:19 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> Germany occupied Tyrolia earlier, but France was not in Piedmont at the
> same time, and I was able to kick him out. He's just now been able to
> get back into place.
That's what I thought.
> France is not threatened by Germany's being in Nth, at least not too
> much. If Germany dislodges you from Nwy, you can bet that he will also
> move Den-Nth. It is too dangerous to allow you into Nth, which is why
> I've been surprised that he hasn't bounced himself from Nth to keep you out.
France did ask Germany to move out of Nth in the first place, so he must have
felt some threat. A Convoy into Yor one spring would cost France
a supply center in the fall.
> Well once Germany enters Tyrolia, then Venice will fall into
> French/German hands. Probably France will dislodge Tuscany first, and
> then they can attack Venice. Tys becomes vulnerable too if France gets
> his fleets into position.
Tyr and Vie can't take Ven if it's supported by Tri, which I
assume it would be. They need Tus as well. It's at least
a year before armies in Tus, Pie and Tyr can be arranged.
Perhaps Tri would need to support Vie though if units
friendly to G were in Boh and Gal too so that might
speed things up, but for that he needs my help. While
I completely agree with you that Germany will attack
Russia when I'm of little use to him anymore, I don't
see that time comming in the next year or possibly even
two.
> Once they have Venice, then they can move to Tri to cut my support, and
> Germany can take Vienna. What has he offered you, and when?
He hasn't been talking a lot to be honest, Real Life must be
getting in his way quite a lot. Most of the recent plans have
been made by me and France in press to GRF with Steve just
managing to pipe in at the last minute with a 'yeah okay'
message so he hasn't really had much chance to offer anything.
I would have imagined that if I pressed him he'd offer Rum,
Bud, Bul and all of Turkey but of course he's only let me get
at most a few of those centers before he turned on me. Especially
since he can only expect to get Vie, Tri, Nwy and maybe Ven
for himself.
Adam..........
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:25 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> France did ask Germany to move out of Nth in the first place, so he must have
> felt some threat. A Convoy into Yor one spring would cost France
> a supply center in the fall.
I suppose there is a minor threat there. France can order Edi-Yor and
Lon-Yor to prevent that simple convoy, though.
> Tyr and Vie can't take Ven if it's supported by Tri, which I
> assume it would be.
Well, I can't use Tri to support Vie and Ven at the same time if we are
surrounded on all sides.
> They need Tus as well. It's at least
> a year before armies in Tus, Pie and Tyr can be arranged.
> Perhaps Tri would need to support Vie though if units
> friendly to G were in Boh and Gal too so that might
> speed things up, but for that he needs my help. While
> I completely agree with you that Germany will attack
> Russia when I'm of little use to him anymore, I don't
> see that time comming in the next year or possibly even
> two.
If you think Germany's attack is inevitable, what are you doing to thwart
it? Do you have some plan in mind, or are you just going to give up when
the attack finally does come?
Germany doesn't sound like a very good ally. He's using you and not
offering much in return. He's letting you keep Norway, but your
Norwegian fleet is just sitting there and you wouldn't miss it (though it
could be better used to move to Nth).
Austria
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:30 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> Is there something
> you're planning on doing this fall that would make it
> harder to turn on Germany in the spring rather than now?
My concern is that we need to take centers from Germany quickly if we stab him.
Surprising him now gives us two more turns to maneuver, and I'm pretty sure I
could get Bel next year. I suppose I'd still have a good shot at it if we wait
til Spring, but that's less clear to me.
> Tus-Pie and Pie-Mar should
> you go up against Germany looks minimal to me.
The difference is whether I let Germany into Bur when I order Bur-Bel. I think
that's an important distinction.
> I like the option of moving against Germany in the spring,
> but if you require that we move now or never (well, much
> later) then I'm less sure either way.
I'm not saying that I won't make the move in the Spring, but I can't promise that
I will either. I'd have to reevaluate the position at that time. If FGR make
good progress this turn then I might prefer to stay the course next year.
> You think Germany will bounce a move to Bur in the spring?
I doubt he would stab me capriciously, but if Par would be undefendable in the
event that Mun-Bur were to succeed, he might find it tempting.
> So we're on a gamble, I think if we have to decide now
> between siding with G or AI then my own interestes would be
> better served in the longer term going with AI.
If you are certain that you will move against G either this season or next, I
believe that doing it now is better - though it would let AI entirely off the
hook. If you are open to the possibility of FGR succeeding against AI then I'm
OK with keeping the pressure on - but then next year is an unknown in my mind.
> If we're changing our
> moves to attack G then we need to figure out what they are
> pretty quick. Nwy - Nth, War - Sil, Ukr/Mos - War and
> the other support Sev for me I suppose.
I think that would be fine. Mos-StP would give you some hope of outguessing G
in Scandinavia, but then Sev is entirely at AI's mercy. If we do stab G it might
be worth making things as difficult for him as possible even if it risks giving AI
a "freebie" - they would still have to cooperate and decide which one gets it
(which might be beyond their capacity), and I think it crucial that we limit
Germany's build prospects as much as possible.
> Mao - Eng, Gas - Bur for you, with some backup from those
> other fleets but do be careful that you don't let
> Italy get too far West.
Italy will not be a threat to me. The only caveat is that I'll be granting him
a permanent stalemate if Austria doesn't turn on him.
OK, let's make the call - move now or wait?
Rod
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:33 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> I'm not saying that I won't make the move in the Spring, but I
> can't promise that I will either. I'd have to reevaluate the
> position at that time. If FGR make good progress this turn then
> I might prefer to stay the course next year.
The problem is that I suspect that FGR making good progress
would mean Germany making good progress toward having all he
needs to do before he turns on me done.
> I doubt he would stab me capriciously, but if Par would be
> undefendable in the event that Mun-Bur were to succeed, he might
> find it tempting.
Possibly, though I still see him disabling me before
he made war with the last remaining friend in France.
> If you are certain that you will move against G either
> this season or next, I believe that doing it now is better -
> though it would let AI entirely off the hook. If you are
> open to the possibility of FGR succeeding against AI then
> I'm OK with keeping the pressure on - but then next year
> is an unknown in my mind.
I think that Germany would be moving on me within a year or
so if we made progress against AI. Certainly if Ven or
Vie fall and he gets the center he'd take Norway and use
the two extra units to ravage Russia, which wouldn't
even take very long. I'm absolutely sure that my centers
are on his list of eighteen anyway! At least your list
probably doesn't have Moscow on it.
> I think that would be fine. Mos-StP would give you some
> hope of outguessing G in Scandinavia, but then Sev is
> entirely at AI's mercy. If we do stab G it might be worth
> making things as difficult for him as possible even if it
> risks giving AI a "freebie" - they would still have to cooperate
> and decide which one gets it (which might be beyond their
> capacity), and I think it crucial that we limit Germany's
> build prospects as much as possible.
I'm reluctant to move Mos - StP, but I think you're probably
right that if AI are going to cooperate and take Sev then
the whole attack is just going to be the end of me so
I might as well take the risk. Probably worth asking
Keith not to attack Sev though.
> Italy will not be a threat to me. The only caveat is that
> I'll be granting him a permanent stalemate if Austria doesn't
> turn on him.
I'm positive that Austria will attack Italy quite soon,
my only real worry is that he'd use Italy to take Sev
first. I guess that might not be his best move, we'll
have to see what he's got to say I think.
> OK, let's make the call - move now or wait?
Argh, surely not a decision. Okay, I'm changing my orders,
let's take Germany down before it's too late.
Nwy - Nth
War - Sil
Ukr - War
Sev H
Mos - Stp
See how he likes that.
Adam..........
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:35 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> If you think Germany's attack is inevitable, what are you doing to thwart
> it? Do you have some plan in mind, or are you just going to give up when
> the attack finally does come?
>
> Germany doesn't sound like a very good ally. He's using you and not
> offering much in return. He's letting you keep Norway, but your
> Norwegian fleet is just sitting there and you wouldn't miss it (though it
> could be better used to move to Nth).
Okay, I'd hate to make the move and find that you and Italy
attack Sev again. Do I have your word that you won't attack
Sev this fall, if so then I think I can probably talk France
around - he's still very distrustful of you and Italy and
worries you won't attack each other though.
Adam.......
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:36 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Russia in
'gutsy':
Adam,
> I think that Germany would be moving on me within a year or
> so if we made progress against AI. Certainly if Ven or
> Vie fall and he gets the center he'd take Norway and use
> the two extra units to ravage Russia, which wouldn't
> even take very long.
I think you're right about this. Once upon a time, I wouldn't have minded Germany
ravaging Russia while I got gains in Italy, but that doesn't seem feasible any more
- if we maintain FGR til Germany stabs you then AI will stick together, and my growth
will be very slow while Germany sucks up all your centers - and then mine make 18.
> Probably worth asking
> Keith not to attack Sev though.
I'd be worried that making the request might just entice him to take advantage of
the opportunity, but it's your call how you want to handle that.
> Argh, surely not a decision. Okay, I'm changing my orders,
> let's take Germany down before it's too late.
It has been quite a difficult decision, but I think it's the right one.
> Nwy - Nth
> War - Sil
> Ukr - War
> Sev H
> Mos - Stp
Sounds good! I will do: MAO-Eng, Gas-Bur, Pie-Mar, NAf-MAO
Oooh - I just got a surge of adrenaline. It feels good after all this slow
wrangling. :-)
Rod
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:38 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
> I think you're right about this. Once upon a time, I wouldn't
> have minded Germany ravaging Russia while I got gains in Italy,
> but that doesn't seem feasible any more - if we maintain FGR
> til Germany stabs you then AI will stick together, and my growth
> will be very slow while Germany sucks up all your centers -
> and then mine make 18.
Yeah, me being his puppet until he's ready to take the
centers does give him a better shot at a solo.
> I'd be worried that making the request might just entice him
> to take advantage of the opportunity, but it's your call how
> you want to handle that.
He says he doesn't want the center, yet last move
there was a supported attack on Sev. If he knows
it'll be supported I'm sure he'd make the attack
just to keep Italy happy so I think there's less
chance if I ask nicely.
> It has been quite a difficult decision, but I think it's the right one.
> Oooh - I just got a surge of adrenaline. It feels good after
> all this slow wrangling. :-)
Yeah, it's going to be a few moves before we really
know if it was the right choice though, which doesn't
give you that relief when you read the results and
see your stab flawlessly take three centers. Still,
should get something moving at least.
Adam.........
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:39 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to France in 'gutsy':
Again, no reply from the judge. Have to be careful with
this, my outgoing email is really bad. Might have to find
another solution at some point. You'll get this twice,
but one might be days from now for all I know.
> I think you're right about this. Once upon a time, I wouldn't
> have minded Germany ravaging Russia while I got gains in Italy,
> but that doesn't seem feasible any more - if we maintain FGR
> til Germany stabs you then AI will stick together, and my growth
> will be very slow while Germany sucks up all your centers -
> and then mine make 18.
Yeah, me being his puppet until he's ready to take the
centers does give him a better shot at a solo.
> I'd be worried that making the request might just entice him
> to take advantage of the opportunity, but it's your call how
> you want to handle that.
He says he doesn't want the center, yet last move
there was a supported attack on Sev. If he knows
it'll be supported I'm sure he'd make the attack
just to keep Italy happy so I think there's less
chance if I ask nicely.
> It has been quite a difficult decision, but I think it's the right one.
> Oooh - I just got a surge of adrenaline. It feels good after
> all this slow wrangling. :-)
Yeah, it's going to be a few moves before we really
know if it was the right choice though, which doesn't
give you that relief when you read the results and
see your stab flawlessly take three centers. Still,
should get something moving at least.
Adam.........
From - Tue Dec 11 18:39:45 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
Keith? I think that I'd like to move Mos - StP and Nwy - NTH
but I really need you to promise not to use Rum to support
into or move into Sev. I'm going to bed in a couple of hours
so it's reasonably urgent.
Adam..........
From - Tue Dec 11 20:46:40 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Okay, I'd hate to make the move and find that you and Italy
> attack Sev again. Do I have your word that you won't attack
> Sev this fall, if so then I think I can probably talk France
> around - he's still very distrustful of you and Italy and
> worries you won't attack each other though.
Italy may move Arm-Sev, but I will not be supporting him. Also, Italy
tells me he is either ordering Con S Bul or Con-Aeg. If you attack
Germany, my plan is to take Bulgaria from Italy immediately, and I will
likely work with France against Italy. We can collaborate to take the
Turkish centers if all goes well.
Promises are not worth much in this game as you know, but this promise I
am making to you is worth as much as any of them.
Austria
From - Tue Dec 11 20:46:45 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Keith? I think that I'd like to move Mos - StP and Nwy - NTH
> but I really need you to promise not to use Rum to support
> into or move into Sev. I'm going to bed in a couple of hours
> so it's reasonably urgent.
I promise I will not use Rum against you in any way this turn. In fact
I'm doing exactly the same thing as last turn. Italy is supporting
Ser-Rum, and I am moving Rum-Gal. If you move as you say, I will evict
Germany from Bohemia the next turn, and we will have a good shot at Munich.
Austria
From - Tue Dec 11 20:46:52 2001
Message from pre at dalliance.net as Russia to Austria in 'gutsy':
> Promises are not worth much in this game as you know, but this promise I
> am making to you is worth as much as any of them.
Thanks, we're still not entirely finished with negotation
but I think there's a good chance that you'll be pleased
with my moves, and probably Frances too.
Adam......
From - Tue Dec 11 20:46:54 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
> Thanks, we're still not entirely finished with negotation
> but I think there's a good chance that you'll be pleased
> with my moves, and probably Frances too.
I look forward to the moves.
Good luck with the negotiations. Be careful, France can be tricky too.
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:24 2001
:: Judge: NZMB Game: Gutsy Variant: Standard
:: Deadline: F1907M Wed Dec 12 2001 23:30:00 +1300
Movement results for Fall of 1907. (gutsy.027)
Austria: Army Serbia -> Rumania.
Austria: Army Rumania -> Galicia.
Austria: Fleet Ionian Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Tunis.
Austria: Army Tyrolia -> Bohemia. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Budapest -> Vienna.
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Budapest -> Vienna.
France: Army Piedmont -> Marseilles.
France: Army Edinburgh HOLD.
France: Fleet North Africa -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army London HOLD.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> English Channel.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Spain (south coast).
France: Army Gascony -> Burgundy.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Piedmont. (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Holland HOLD.
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia.
Germany: Fleet Sweden HOLD.
Germany: Army Vienna -> Budapest. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Germany: Fleet Skagerrak HOLD.
Germany: Fleet Denmark HOLD.
Germany: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Munich -> Tyrolia.
Italy: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Austrian Army Serbia -> Rumania.
Italy: Army Venice SUPPORT Army Tuscany -> Piedmont.
Italy: Fleet Armenia -> Black Sea.
Italy: Fleet Constantinople -> Aegean Sea.
Italy: Fleet Tunis SUPPORT Fleet Naples -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Army Tuscany -> Piedmont.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Gulf of Lyon. (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Tyrrhenian Sea. (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet Norway -> North Sea.
Russia: Army Sevastopol HOLD.
Russia: Army Ukraine -> Warsaw.
Russia: Army Moscow -> St Petersburg.
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Silesia.
The following units were dislodged:
The Austrian Army in Tyrolia with no valid retreats was destroyed.
The German Army in Vienna with no valid retreats was destroyed.
Ownership of supply centers:
Austria: Budapest, Greece, Rumania, Serbia, Trieste, Vienna.
France: Brest, Edinburgh, Liverpool, London, Marseilles, Paris, Portugal,
Spain.
Germany: Belgium, Berlin, Denmark, Holland, Kiel, Munich, Sweden.
Italy: Ankara, Bulgaria, Constantinople, Naples, Rome, Smyrna, Tunis,
Venice.
Russia: Moscow, Norway, Sevastopol, St Petersburg, Warsaw.
Austria: 6 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 1 unit.
England: 0 Supply centers, 0 Units: Builds 0 units.
France: 8 Supply centers, 8 Units: Builds 0 units.
Germany: 7 Supply centers, 6 Units: Builds 1 unit.
Italy: 8 Supply centers, 8 Units: Builds 0 units.
Russia: 5 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 0 units.
Turkey: 0 Supply centers, 0 Units: Builds 0 units.
The next phase of 'gutsy' will be Adjustments for Winter of 1907.
The deadline for orders will be Thu Dec 13 2001 22:32:19 +1300.
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:05 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
Our negotiations seem to finally have been effective. Now what? How
long should we wait before attacking France and Russia?
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:11 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to France in 'gutsy':
I am pleased to see that you and Russia have moved against Germany. I
was not expecting that you would withdraw from Italy. I figured we would
be able to attack Italy together. Italy has a lot of fleets and can
still be a threat, especially to me right now, who he has surrounded.
What do you expect my role will be in this new world that developed after
the last set of moves? I will certainly help against Germany (for
instance destroying his army in Bohemia) as long as my security can be
assured.
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:13 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Russia in 'gutsy':
I am of course pleased to see the move results. I think Germany will be
in quite a bit of trouble. I can destroy his army in Bohmeia in the
Spring, if you wish.
Do you have any sense of Italy's intentions?
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:15 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Germany in 'gutsy':
Hey, wake up, you're under attack! What are you going to do about it?
It seems clear what Russia and France are going to do, but it is less
clear what Italy is going to do. Do you have any sense? What have
people been telling you? I've heard nothing from you in several turns.
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:29 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
That's the way to do it :-) Thank you, thank you, thank you! I am so happy
that you talked to France to get away from Med. What can I do to help you?
I hope you are delighted about the fact that there is only one fleet left
in Black Sea area.
Have you had the problems that caused the deadline extension? I ask
because I have not got a message from you for awhile.
Raine
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:33 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Austria in 'gutsy':
Hi Keith,
> Our negotiations seem to finally have been effective. Now what? How
> long should we wait before attacking France and Russia?
I am amazed :-) I think, I have been too busy to _really_ make any
effective diploming and now Russia is heading away from us and France is
doing the same. Maybe I should thank you? Have you been discussing like
maniac to FR ? Or do you have any explanation for their behaviour?
Anyway I am very happy about the movements :-)
Now what is a good question. You build an army in Bud is the easy one.
Then what?
Let me tell you my desires:
-obviously I'd like to dislodge your fleet in Ionian Sea and I'd like you
to rebuild it as army. The question is could you dispand it in Spring
already? That would give me the speed to go against France (and I have
promised France to dislodge the fleet if he retreats). Also others would
think that we are 'in war' when they see that I attack your fleet
immediately when I have the chance.
-We need a border between us that is safe against stabs. I am ready
to move my fleets so that you can breath more easy in Balkans.
About attacking Russia:
Should we wait? Maybe, because I think that Russia is not a threat at the
moment. I count him as the weakest of our opponents at the moment. I am
ready to listen to you a lot in this case. How do you feel about this?
About attacking France:
It takes time anyway. At least a year to get against him, if I dislodge
Ionian in next spring. It takes more time if I dislodge Ionian in fall.
I am ready to listen to you a lot in this case, too. I'd like to head
against France now but I am not sure if it will be effective to attack
him. He still has the power to make sure that I don't get a center from
him.
About Tyrolia:
I think it is essential that we either talk Germany out of there or we
should force him out or there. What do you think about this? I'd love to
see empty Tyrolia and I guess it would benefit us (AIG) all.
One more question, do you know who is the one with e-mail problems? I know
I have the delay problem but I have not asked for extension.
Raine
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:43 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
I am happy to see your fleets sailing to Atlantic. Thank you. Now I start
to believe what you say (at least, I listen more carefully now :-) .
Sorry about the attack against Pie. You should have told me that you are
leaving it. I would have left it open to your fleet if you had wanted to.
I was under impression that you are still attacking me that is why I moved
to Lyo (to cut possible support). Afterall you have been so silent that I
believed that you want to have a vacation in Rome :-) Once again please
forgive me my moves. Obviously I had no idea of your intensions.
Have you had the problems with the e-mail (or what is what that caused the
deadline extension)? I ask because you have been silent. When I looked at
your moves I come to conclusion that you had to talk with people in order
to have the guts to move like that :-) So, do you know the one who asked
the deadline extension?
Raine
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:47 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to France in 'gutsy':
Hi Rod,
Oh, boy. LOL
Any ideas about how to work this through? If you're just looking for a
center, maybe we can talk about Belgium. I'm quite willing to move on
Norway and then St Pete.
AI is still rock solid and Adam is sure to lose Sev this year. Write when
you can.
Thanks.
- Steve
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:49 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Russia in 'gutsy':
Hi Adam,
Again! LOL
Really, no hard feelings here. If we can work this out, great. If not, one
of us is going to get pretty small, pretty fast. I'll probably rebuild in
Berlin and cross my fingers next year.
Write if you'd like. Thanks.
- Steve
From - Wed Dec 12 17:02:52 2001
Message from rkarjala at mail.student.oulu.fi as Italy to Germany in 'gutsy':
Hi Steve,
I believe you are the one who is having problems with e-mail, am I
correct? I haven't get a message from you for awhile. Also the moves by
AFR gives me a hint that you must have been silent. Otherwise you had
talked the others to do something completely different.
Nevertheless, I want to help you out of your problematic situation.
My price is Tyr-Mun. No, I am not economist or anything like that I just
want you to know what I want. In fact, it is not important how you move
the unit in Tyrolia but please try to leave in empty (by not moving to
Venice :-).
The situation has changed a lot. There are now many chances how to
continue. I'd like to hear your opinion of GI co-operation. Also do you
think we should try to talk someone with us? My chances to help you are
limited.
My number one priority is to get rid of that Austrian fleet in Ionian Sea.
Then I am ready to move to any direction. I cannot see us as enemies. I
understand that it is possible but I'd rather work with you than against
you. Please, spend some time to write me how you see GI's future.
Yours,
Raine
From - Wed Dec 12 17:03:05 2001
Message from scse at maine.rr.com as Germany to Austria in 'gutsy':
Yep, I guess I am being attacked. So, I'm going to rebuild in Berlin,
defend Munich, try for Norway, and offer Belgium to Rod. I would certainly
have no hard feelings if you struck out for the Ukraine and aimed for
Warsaw. I certainly won't get in your way.
Write when you can. Thanks.
- Steve
From - Wed Dec 12 17:03:29 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Germany in
'gutsy':
Steve,
> Oh, boy. LOL
Exciting, ain't it? :-)
> Any ideas about how to work this through?
I was starting to worry that once AI cracked you'd suck up Russian centers much
faster than I could progress against Italy, and then my centers would make 18 for
you. Also, I was paranoid about committing both of my homeland armies against Italy.
In retrospect, one of my English garrisons should've been reallocated for home defense,
but I didn't have the opportunity.
Anyway, the big risk I'm taking is that AI will consummate that impenetrable
stalemate. They've both been claiming they'll turn on each other at the slightest
opportunity, but I'm skeptical.
> If you're just looking for a
> center, maybe we can talk about Belgium.
Bel is indeed my target. I couldn't very well shift my focus without aiming for
something, and Bel seems like the most likely candidate.
I am not opposed to FG cooperation, but I think that it won't lead to a solo for me,
and I certainly can't allow it to become a German solo. If we're going to stick
together then I fear we must settle for a three-way. Do you think that's my best
option?
Rod
From - Wed Dec 12 17:03:31 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Austria in
'gutsy':
Keith,
> I was not expecting that you would withdraw from Italy.
I am not eager to fight a two-front war. I had to allocate enough forces against
Germany that I can repel him if he decides to go kamikaze on me. I'm not that
afraid of Raine.
> I figured we would be able to attack Italy together.
Well, I wouldn't want to pass up a golden opportunity, and I do want to provide
an incentive for you to attack Italy. OTOH, I have acquiesced to your desire
that I make the first move, so now I need to see some proof that A/I are not
inseparable. You and Raine have cooperated perfectly the last several years,
and if that is now to continue then I have made the wrong decision.
> What do you expect my role will be in this new world that developed after
> the last set of moves? I will certainly help against Germany (for
> instance destroying his army in Bohemia) as long as my security can be
> assured.
I don't think I require your direct assistance against G, as long as you leave
Russia alone. What I need to see is A/I conflict, and when it happens I will
move to secure my share of the spoils. If Adam supports Rum and Germany stops
attacking you (which I think is now likely), then you have sufficient force to
protect your weak spots. (Bud-Ser, Ion-Gre should work well, particularly if it
takes Raine by surprise.) If you can also work your way into Tyl then we'll be
in good position to help each other out.
Rod
From - Wed Dec 12 17:03:33 2001
Message from rodspade at acm.org,rodney.spade at philips.com as France to Italy in
'gutsy':
Raine,
> I am happy to see your fleets sailing to Atlantic.
Yes, I thought you would approve. :-)
> Sorry about the attack against Pie. You should have told me that you are
> leaving it. I would have left it open to your fleet if you had wanted to.
Would you have believed me?
> Afterall you have been so silent that I
> believed that you want to have a vacation in Rome.
Well, you told me not to *say* I would withdraw, but to just *do* it - so that's
what I did.
Anyway, now that you know my intent, I hope that you will withdraw from Pie so I
can focus on Germany.
> Have you had the problems with the e-mail
My email seems fine.
> So, do you know the one who asked the deadline extension?
No.
Rod
From - Wed Dec 12 17:03:45 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
France is urging me to attack you and leave Russia alone. Is he doing
the same for you?
I'll respond to your message soon. As far as attacking people, we should
probably wait until they are fully engaged with the enemy, although
Russia would be easy pickins now. It might be advantageous for us to
look like we are, or will be attacking each other. Germany is now trying
to woo back France with offers of Beligum, and I think he will just take
Norway from Russia. If France feels like you are a threat to him, he may
withdraw from Germany quickly.
I don't know how best to go about this, though. What do you think?
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 17:19:02 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Italy in 'gutsy':
> I am amazed :-) I think, I have been too busy to _really_ make any
> effective diploming and now Russia is heading away from us and France is
> doing the same. Maybe I should thank you? Have you been discussing like
> maniac to FR ? Or do you have any explanation for their behaviour?
I have been lobbying them for some time, though I don't know how
effective I was.
> Now what is a good question. You build an army in Bud is the easy one.
> Then what?
>
> Let me tell you my desires:
> -obviously I'd like to dislodge your fleet in Ionian Sea and I'd like you
> to rebuild it as army. The question is could you dispand it in Spring
> already? That would give me the speed to go against France (and I have
> promised France to dislodge the fleet if he retreats). Also others would
> think that we are 'in war' when they see that I attack your fleet
> immediately when I have the chance.
Of course, any notion that we were at war would be dispelled when I
disbanded the fleet. I would be happy to retreat it to Greece or
somewhere, but I am assuming you'd like me to disband it.
I would prefer to disband it in a Fall move if at all possible.
> -We need a border between us that is safe against stabs. I am ready
> to move my fleets so that you can breath more easy in Balkans.
The only think I am concerned about is your army in Bulgaria. I'd like
to see that gone as soon as possible. I would be happy to disband my
fleet after a Spring move if your army were not in Bulgaria. If you
dislodged it but wanted to keep your army in Bul, then I would also be
happy to retreat to Greece. This would cause more friction between us,
of course, but it might be more workable if you prefer your army in place.
> About attacking Russia:
> Should we wait? Maybe, because I think that Russia is not a threat at the
> moment. I count him as the weakest of our opponents at the moment. I am
> ready to listen to you a lot in this case. How do you feel about this?
I think we should wait too. He's probably not going to get many builds,
and the more he trusts us, the easier it will be to stab him later.
> About attacking France:
> It takes time anyway. At least a year to get against him, if I dislodge
> Ionian in next spring. It takes more time if I dislodge Ionian in fall.
> I am ready to listen to you a lot in this case, too. I'd like to head
> against France now but I am not sure if it will be effective to attack
> him. He still has the power to make sure that I don't get a center from
> him.
Yes, but you may be able to negotiate with Germany to help you. Don't
you think?
> About Tyrolia:
> I think it is essential that we either talk Germany out of there or we
> should force him out or there. What do you think about this? I'd love to
> see empty Tyrolia and I guess it would benefit us (AIG) all.
Yes, we should evict Germany from Tyrolia and Bohemia as soon as
possible. In order to make France and Russia happy, I think I could
occupy Bohemia and Tyrolia and then shift up towards Warsaw at the right
time (the same time you move against France).
> One more question, do you know who is the one with e-mail problems? I know
> I have the delay problem but I have not asked for extension.
I didn't know anyone had e-mail problems. When I saw the extension, I
figured that France and Russia needed more time to coordinate their
efforts and hammer out some sort of agreement.
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 18:05:10 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Master in 'gutsy':
Austria's 1907 YES
This Fall marked the fruit of quite a lengthy effort from me to get
Russia to attack Germany. France was necessarily involved. My strategy
was to show France and Russia that they would get nowhere against Italy
and Austria, and that Germany was poised to take the Russian centers
whenever he wanted.
Russia had good reasons to attack Germany--if he didn't attack Germany,
he would be forced to sit and wait for something to happen. He was
waiting for Italy to attack me, but that didn't look like it would happen
any time soon, because my fleet was needed to protect Italy against France.
I am not sure why France chose to move against Germany, though I was
certainly encouraging it. Germany and France just broke into Tyrolia
this Fall, and France could have taken Tuscany in the Spring. It still
would have taken several turns to get Tunis or Venice--without Germany or
Russia in Galacia, my army in Trieste was free to support Italy in Venice.
Anyway, now it's done, and I think Germany will be in quite a bit of
trouble. His home centers are threatened only if I join against him, and
Russia's being in the North Sea is difficult to defend against. But he
will certainly lose Belgium, and he cannot protect against France and
Russia if France gets another army into play.
But, though I've been campaigning for this outcome for some time, I've
always viewed it with mixed feelings. I have gotten Germany and Russia
off my back, and I seemingly have only allies at this point, but I am
sure the peace between Italy and I will not last. He obviously has some
agreements with Russia and France as well. Italy can take Greece from me
with little effort. I need to get his army out of Bulgaria.
I didn't submit an end-of-year statement last year, but Italy's Bulgaria
was a thorn in my side at that point. I clearly told Italy that I
preferred a fleet there, but he used the tactic of sending a last-minute
message telling me that he would move an army in unless I requested
otherwise. When I requested otherwise he then did not respond until
after the moves and told me that he had not seen my message until too
late. I didn't believe him, but I pretended not to mind.
Italy is becoming less-than-honest with me. He told me two turns ago
that he would support Bulgaria holding with his fleet in the Black Sea
(presumably so that I would not attack it), but then he moved to
Constantinople. This turn he claimed he would hold the fleet in Con. I
told him I didn't care which he did. This past turn he moved Arm-Bla.
He is clearly worried more about me than he is about Russia. In the press
after this turn, Italy claimed that he was not expecting Russia and
France to move the way they did. I had kept him informed of my
diplomatic efforts, and Russia had mentioned some conversation with
Italy, so I suspect this is some attempt at deception from Italy.
Italy really owes me some supply centers. He got all of Turkey and
Bulgaria because he needed the units to defend against France, plus I
used one of my fleets to help support him against France, and I made
quite some effort to keep Germany and France out of Tyrolia. But, if
Italy thinks that I want the supply centers back, I am sure it will only
strengthen his fortitude to turn against me. It is not difficult to
imagine that France is trying to convince both me and Italy to attack
each other.
If Italy is serious about peace with Austria, he will remove his army from
Bulgaria. If he is not, he won't. I don't think Italy will cooperate
with Russia to evict me from Rumania, though. Russia would not like to
see me retreat to the Ukraine, though, and I think Russia has his hands
full enough with Germany.
The ideal situation for me is to be in an alliance with Germany and Italy
against Russia and France. This way, Italy will divert his forces west,
perhaps leaving a couple of units East to help against Russia, and I will
be able to stab Italy when I want. Plus, I will get the Russian centers
and be in position to perhaps take the German ones. To win, I will need
Munich and Berlin before France could get both Tunis and St. Petersburg.
But this is too forward thinking. I don't need to worry about that until
Italy is out of Bulgaria.
Perhaps I will try to ally with Russia against Italy. I like working with
Russia because he is receptive to suggestion, and perhaps he can be
maneuvered into helping me against Italy but putting himself in a poor
position. Italy will be difficult to tackle, though without my having any
fleets. I may be able to get France to cue Italy's support of Venice
(France would be willing to instigate a conflict between Austria and Italy
I am sure), or I could retreat my fleet to the Adriatic Sea. Turkey is
difficult to conquer without fleets, but a Russian army in Armenia would
go a long way. He needs to get a build before he would be willing to do
that, I assume.
keith
From - Wed Dec 12 18:56:40 2001
Message from keith at alumni.caltech.edu as Austria to Germany in 'gutsy':
> Yep, I guess I am being attacked. So, I'm going to rebuild in Berlin,
> defend Munich, try for Norway, and offer Belgium to Rod. I would certainly
> have no hard feelings if you struck out for the Ukraine and aimed for
> Warsaw. I certainly won't get in your way.
I am glad that you and Russia won't attack me know, but I am worried
about Italy. The ideal situation for me would be AGI vs. FR. Do you
think Italy will attack France now? Surely Italy must have some
agreements with France and/or Russia. If Italy does not attack France,
he has no one to attack except for me.
Austria
From - Wed Dec 12 23:27:39 2001
:: Judge: NZMB Game: Gutsy Variant: Standard
:: Deadline: F1907B Thu Dec 13 2001 22:32:19 +1300
Adjustment orders for Winter of 1907. (gutsy.028)
Austria: Builds an army in Budapest.
Germany: Builds an army in Berlin.
The next phase of 'gutsy' will be Movement for Spring of 1908.
The deadline for orders will be Tue Dec 18 2001 20:00:00 +1300.
